Wolf Street
wolfstreet.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2014
Wolf Richter writes on finance, housing, inflation, the Fed, and the economy, often skeptical of startup valuations and official statistics.
What HN saysHN links it for data on car sales and critiques of CPI hedonic adjustments; one commenter calls it a decent daily read.
181HN people shared it
91linked it in comments
292stories submitted
3.1Kstory points
3 months agolast shared
2014people per year2026
Most-shared posts
- 1Today’s Unicorns Have Bigger Cumulative Losses Than Amazon4 people · 9 points · first shared 2021 · discussion on HN
- 2What worries me about hedonic quality adjustments cpi4 people · first shared 2021
- 3Pump and Dump: How To Rig the IPO Market with $20M3 people · 130 points · first shared 2014 · 63 comments on HN
- 4San Francisco House Prices Drop Back to 2019 as Tech Jobs Evaporate3 people · 60 points · first shared 2024 · 39 comments on HN
- 5How Can WeWork with $1.8B in Revenue Lose $1.9B? Here's How3 people · 11 points · first shared 2019 · 2 comments on HN
- 6Whats behind the feds bailout of the repo market3 people · first shared 2019
- 7House price inflation in cpi is of course baloney but it accounts for 1 4 of total cpi3 people · first shared 2021
- 8Uber Gets Run Over by Its Own Subprime Auto Leases2 people · 220 points · first shared 2017 · 121 comments on HN
- 9Inventory of Homes for Sale Is Rising in Silicon Valley and San Francisco2 people · 154 points · first shared 2019 · 189 comments on HN
- 10Silicon Valley Begins to Crack Visibly2 people · 30 points · first shared 2017 · 2 comments on HN
- 11Media Continues to Misreport US Unemployment Numbers2 people · 27 points · first shared 2020 · 7 comments on HN
- 12Boeing – master of financial engineering instead of aircraft engineering2 people · 20 points · first shared 2020 · 3 comments on HN
- 13These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble2 people · 20 points · first shared 2016 · 18 comments on HN
- 14Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%2 people · 18 points · first shared 2025 · 10 comments on HN
- 15The Housing Affordability Crisis Migration2 people · 15 points · first shared 2021 · discussion on HN
What HN people wrote when they linked it
wenc · 2025-01-20
According to this source, "The British topped the list with 8.4 percent of these transactions, followed by Germans at 7 percent, Moroccans at 6.1 percent, Romanians at 5.3 percent, and the French at 5.2 percent. "
https://sgmlegalspain.com/british-still-the-main-property-buyers/?utm_…
The biggest non-EU property owners in Spain are the Brits.
At least in 2018, Americans (Blackstone) were the largest corporate property owners in Spain.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/14/blackstone-becomes-spains-biggest-ho…
toomuchtodo · 2025-01-10
Unlikely to get cheaper because of US tariffs on Chinese EVs, holding US consumers captive to Tesla and domestic legacy auto (although Kia is making a solid attempt). That said, the Model Y is still doing very well (best selling model in the US).
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/03/ugly-charts-of-us-auto-sales-2024-st…
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/20/tesla-model-y-now-a-hair-from-1-best…
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/19/cars-prices-inflation-suvs
rootusrootus · 2024-02-07
And this source says Model Y was #2 and RAV4 #3.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/07/tesla-model-y-is-2-us-bestseller-in-…
My point stands, Model Y sales are matching RAV4 sales, for all practical purposes. And it happened in the space of a couple years. Toyota sells a lot of cars, but they're not the undisputed king of the hill.
Also, not all RAV4s are hybrids. Model Y definitely outsold RAV4 hybrids. Though hybrids aren't any kind of EV (unless they are plug-in), so that's moot.
hd95489 · 2023-03-10
I like using
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/ As a good daily reading list.
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/how-it-started-how-…
His work is good but everyone else writes crap on the site.
https://wolfstreet.com/
Can be a decent read
https://stocksandjocks.net/
Decent daily podcast
itsdrewmiller · 2021-08-27
Hedonics are one of the best arguments against CPI - https://wolfstreet.com/2019/12/05/what-worries-me-about-hedonic-qualit…
This M3 nonsense is ridiculous though, I agree.
repsilat · 2021-08-23
Measured auto inflation is low because of hedonic adjustments. The sticker prices have gone up a lot, but their quality/value (according to folks measuring inflation) has gone up more. For a somewhat tendentious account, with graphs: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/11/my-pickup-truck-car-price-index-for-…
Not sure what to think of it. Obviously reversing cameras, working A/C and better fuel economy are important and real improvements worth real money.
hourislate · 2021-03-17
I would hope Volkswagen would aspire to be something greater than Samsung. Does this mean after 2 years they stop pushing updates to the car and no longer support it?
Tesla spent 20 billion to get where it is. By the time the other manufacturers spend 20 billion to catch up , Tesla will have spent another 20 billion.
An article from Wolf Street
Why the EV Battle Is Brutal for GM, Ford, Other Automakers
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/02/18/why-the-ev-battle-is-brutal-for-gm-f…
another_comment · 2021-03-13
>> how exactly do you propose the CPI is manipulated
One way is OER, aka Owners Equivalent Rent. Great article https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/11/house-price-inflation-in-cpi-is-of-c…
(look at that graph half way down).
Another way is "hedonic adjustments".
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/603/inflation/hedonics-and-inflatio…
cinquemb · 2020-07-07
Yup, i've been following the alphabet soup of insolvency for a while[0]
[0] https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/US-Fed-Balance-sheet…
moandcompany · 2020-04-14
kingo55 · 2019-08-13
True, but they can always impose greater restrictions such as how much you can spend with cash. Cash transaction limits have been decreasing for some time.
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/28/europe-limits-on-cash-transactions-w…
jmbrook · 2017-11-08
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/11/07/how-can-a-company-once-worth-30b-los…
Has a fairly bleak write up. It makes the point that if enriching the founders is the aim they are doing pretty well.
marcusgarvey · 2016-05-23
Some investors like Calpers, biggest pension fund in the U.S., are falling out of love with hedge funds. http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/21/whats-hammering-hedge-funds/
phkahler · 2016-01-21
>> The current US debt is over 18.900.000.000.000 Am I getting the author right that the US managed to put on 18 B $ in 20 years?!
Google image search:
https://www.google.com/search?q=US+debt&biw=1217&bih=755&s…
Check this one:
http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/02/us-national-debt-jumps-181-billion-in…
So not quite, but at the end of Clinton there was a small surplus. Bush looked at that surplus and said the following:
1) There's a surplus
2) We're not sure why
3) We don't think it will go away
4) Tax brakes and refunds for everyone!
I'm not sure how 3 can be said in light of 2. But we all got a check instead of reducing the debt.
snowwrestler · 2014-08-29
EDIT: The link has now been updated, thanks HN mods!
------
My original post:
I was with this piece until it went off the rails, deep into the swamp of Federal Reserve conspiracy theories.
If you're interested in the title, I'd stop reading this article after about the 6th paragraph. After that, you're in the swamp.
Or just scoll to the bottom and read the real, original article. (Mods, I'd recommend switching the link to that article, which is actually about SnapChat):
http://wolfstreet.com/2014/08/28/how-to-rig-the-entire-ipo-market-with…
kbrkbr · 2025-08-10
Here is an example of the mix-up (from a bit above):
> The greatest values, and change in values comes just before the bubble bursts.
This seems to be talking about the mathematical model. Then you go on:
> In fact, tulips were most valuable, and those values were climbing at the highest rate before the tulip bubble burst.
That seems a jump to the modeled. And you speak of the modeled as if it was the model.
And by the way, if this graph [1] is correct, then what you say is also false. The valuations do not rise exponentially, but slow before the bubble bursts, very visibly. This is also true for the 2008 housing bubble in the local index [2].
I think that shows quite well that there are two layers. And there is the question of the fit between them. Having seen those two graphs I think I'd rather expect reduction in the rate of change of valuation shortly before the bubble bursts. That model appears to fit better what I'd expect in economical bubbles (but not in soap bubbles), namely a growing sense of risk that counteracts the fomo.
[1] image Tulip Price Index 1636-37 here https://www.historydefined.net/how-did-tulips-create-the-worlds-first-… [2] https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/US-Housing-Case-Shil…
timr · 2016-02-13
Funny thing about this theory: the luxury housing market in San Francisco is in decline, and yet, it's still a seller's market for middle- and down-market properties. [1][2]
This is not surprising to anyone who follows real estate. There's no such thing as "a market for housing" -- there are several markets, each moving more-or-less independently, based on the net worth of the participants involved. A drop in the prices of units in the Millenium Tower doesn't have much of an impact on the rent of a pre-war hovel in the Mission.
The reason that the author doesn't understand this is because there's a latent correlation at play: the communities with the most high-end construction tend to have the most construction overall. But in a city like SF, where all of the new construction would be high-end (if so allowed), all bets are off.
Observing that properties become cheaper as they age is also silly. There are some properties that become cheaper as they age, but there aren't many of them, say, in Pac Heights.
[1] http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/08/san-franciscos-luxury-condo-bubble-tu…
[2] http://sfist.com/2015/11/09/at_high_end_sfs_housing_market_fina.php
iamnothere · 2026-07-30
It’s not just SF, it’s happening all over: https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/20/oh-dear-condo-prices-fell-by-15-to-3…
like_any_other · 2026-03-14
It's worse - important metrics like inflation are distorted by "hedonic adjustment" - i.e. pretending cars are getting cheaper because, even though they're getting more expensive, you get "more car" (ABS, airbags, remote unlock, heated seats (if you pay the subscription), hidden GPS tracking..):
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/12/05/what-worries-me-about-hedonic-qualit…
willtemperley · 2026-01-31
> USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves
Yes, but that's the lowest it's been since 1994, in percentage terms. In dollar terms it's been largely flat for the last decade:
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/26/status-of-the-us-dollar-as-global-re…
timerol · 2025-12-11
The neat thing about electric cars is that they get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner. If you bought an EV in 2015 (when this report was published) and were worried about the grid mix, I have good news for you. Electricity production from coal in the US is in the process of falling off a cliff, dropping to 15% of the electricity mix in 2023 from over 30% in 2015. https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/US-electricity-gener…
api · 2025-11-17
The data is easy to find. Five second search turns up:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/US-coal-2024-04-01-c…
This ends mid 2024, but I don’t see any evidence of a coal renaissance. I suppose we could be seeing some old dinosaur burners kept online a few years longer, but coal peaked in the early 2000s and has been in decline since.
gip · 2025-09-17
A partial explanation is that money flows to money-market funds & CDs. Reference: https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/12/money-market-funds-cds-americans-gro…
But let's not forget that is someone is selling stock and getting USD, someone else is buying and giving USD, so the overall effect may be limited.
QuantumFunnel · 2025-09-10
This is probably better evidence than any public filing
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-…
tw04 · 2025-06-05
Tesla has roughly 0.3% VIO TOTAL in the US (taking global statistics into account it's barely measurable), and a fraction of that fraction are actually using FSD on a regular basis - so I would sure hope they kill "a lot fewer people".
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/12/13/vehicles-in-operation-and-registrati…
hello_computer · 2025-04-11
that's what happens when the people leave
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/30/population-drops-even-more-in-califo…
lazide · 2025-01-13
‘Core’ inflation excludes most of this, explicitly.
[https://wolfstreet.com/2021/03/30/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in… [https://www.pgpf.org/article/why-are-americans-paying-more-for-healthc…
Average Housing costs as a multiple of average salary are at 10x, and increasing. Roughly where they were in the 80’s during hyper inflation.
Healthcare spend has increasing from 5% of GDP in ‘62 to 17% of GDP in 2022.
Education cost data is similarly insane - [https://educationdata.org/average-cost-of-college#:~:text=The%20averag…
With an average 4 year degree (living on campus) costing > $100k.
If you need a study to tell you traffic is terrible right now, you might just have no idea what’s happening.
adamredwoods · 2024-12-30
I don't think there is a correct answer.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/26/san-francisco-house-prices-drop-back…
jarsin · 2024-12-30
Wolfstreet wrote an article on why they don't use Case-Shiller anymore and switched to Zillow data.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/09/02/why-well-replace-the-case-shiller-ho…
ghastmaster · 2024-09-11
1) Initially 2) Absolutely 3) False. Consumer spending on non durable goods is still rising. Disposable income is still available. Durable goods spending exploded after COVID.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/30/our-drunken-sailors-are-at-it-again-…