Oryx

OSINT community on twitter is best place (just search for accounts using that term). Outside of twitter this is a good start: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/

The thing is you can easily check that the funds are spend property: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… Also, nation united against aggressive, genocidal war does great to improve cohesion and trust, and remove low level corruption.

The bias and narrative is definitely pro-Ukrainian, but the facts are well documented. There's a massive OSINT effort around this war. There's a Dutch group called Oryx specifically tracking material deployment and destruction [1]. That data is also scraped and put into a visual format by a guy on GitHub [2]. [1]: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com [2]: https://github.com/favstats/uaconflict_equipmentloss

There are plenty of independent folks doing great work analyzing (and in many cases geolocating) photos of equipment losses. Oryx is great: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… Basically yes: this war has been a disaster for Russian armor.

> He didn't say parts of it, he said much of their military. He was clearly talking about there overall armed forces, but you seemingly want to interpret his words in a very narrow view. > You've mentioned 35.5k-43.5k KIA losses for Russia up to March this year. Are you suggesting that these numbers comprise the complete ground forces? 35.4k-43.5k KIA is is like ~130k-~160k casualties, thats a huge lose, for any army. But no, my assessment of the state of the Russian ground forces is more based around their use of equipment and their equipment losses. The losses are staggering you should see them for yourself. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… > I thought that was a loaded question you weren't expecting answers for. Is there anything in T62 that make it, in your opinion, unworthy on the battlefield? It's another piece of useful artillery equipment after all. But it's not being used as artillery its being used as tank. Indirect fire its not a bad idea but as a tank its going to melt in the face of anything at or never then a T64. > If the things you say are true and they no longer produce it, why not using the existing stockpile that had been taking space and maintenance effort at past peace time? Well for one its crew is different to anything the Russian forces use now because it doesn't have a auto loader, its a cannon is too weak to really take on anything newer then it. > Is that the only model of tanks they've…

Taking Wikipedia as reliable (apologies) The Russian Army has 280k active troops (per :https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Ground_Forces) and is thought to have deployed 175k of those (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) Contrary to the lowest grade, it seems that many elite forces were used : https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/destination-disaster-russias-fai… unfortunately they were deployed in an amateur way using a reckless plan. If the reinforcement strategy had come off then everyone would say that it was utterly brilliant, but gambles like this happen in war all the time. We like to venerate the ones that work and to talk about brilliant generals and the glamour of battle. In reality, as in this case they mostly fail and the troops get bogged down and killed. The Russians have done a surprising and smart thing, which shows that someone in Moscow has the light on still. They've pulled out of the north and completely changed strategy - this shows a strategic flexibility that's really quite impressive, and unusual for a totalitarian regime. The problem that they have now is that the situation in the south is much more difficult than it would have been if they had gone for it at the outset. They don't have much of a reserve because Russia is so vast and the Russians have serious commitments at the border with China and North Korea and so on.

I'd prefer something more modern. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tito's_Blue_Train https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/02/this-was-gaddafis-personal-itali…

I wonder if those trains was imported from Italy ? During the Danish transition to IC-4 some of those trains ended up with Gaddafi in Libiya (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/02/this-was-gaddafis-personal-itali…

Poland already sent about 330 tanks https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/08/the-kielbasa-connection-polish-m…

For a detailed description of Russian losses to date, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzR8BacYS6U. (with data mostly from https://www.youtube.com/@CovertCabal/videos which go into the satellite pictures which are pretty hard to dispute.) The TLDR is Russia to date has lost almost all their functional BMDs ~4/5ths of their functional BMPs almost all of their MTLBs and MTLbus ~2/3rds of their big artillery ~1/3rd of their small artillery (because they are short on ammo) all of their mortars ~4/5ths of their towed artillery (that isn't from WW2) ~9/10ths of their rocket artillery Furthermore, these numbers have been cross correlated with visually confirmed loss data https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… .

happy to see this, but let's be honest here—it's practically nothing in the grand scheme of things a ukrainian armor battalion is 31 tanks, so it's not even a full battalion https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-offensive-has-started-wait-for… to put that in perspective, russia has lost at least 2500+ tanks thus far https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

russia is a big country with huge soviet reserves, still they started renovating T54s https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/07/mammoths-crap-more-ob… Currently there are 2500 tank and >4000 armored carrier losses documented on video/pictures https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… while UA claims double that in the field https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/ ~10 tank loses a day while ru barely makes under 10 new tanks and refurbishes tens per month now. https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/how_many_tanks_a_month_russian_ur…

The article is Russian propaganda Only sources mentioned in the post are Russians, and the only one that named is RIA which is a Russian controlled media. The original can be found here [0] in Russian and doesn't have any links to sources or names. There are already 35 confirmed loses of that type on Oryx [1] with most of them not on the ground. The true amount likely is much higher. But even that is a bit too high for such wunderwaffe of "the 2nd army in the world" [0] https://ria.ru/20230609/vertolet-1877114636.html [1] https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

We know that they're bringing ancient equipment out of storage, and have lost more than 10,000 vehicles, and that's only the verified losses. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… Now the small amount of modern equipment they have are being shown to be in bad condition too. If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then there's really a chance that it might be a duck. Russia has proven to be weak on the battlefield so have been forced to pivot to a war of attrition, hoping to win by sending more men into the meat grinder and using systematic war crimes, I presume in an effort to weaken the defenders' resolve.

>Where is the victory? Here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… Russia already lost about half of its entire available land forces.

> 500 tanks That doesn't seems to be right. Oryx lists 1450 lost Russian tanks, of which destroyed: 835, damaged: 62, abandoned: 53, captured: 500. And these are only the visually confirmed losses. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

Oryx reports "only" 57 confirmed helicopter losses: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2… The real number is probably somewhere between the two, but in any case a massive chunk of the Russian Air Force is destroyed/inoperable.

This shipments: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-ai… "Contrary to popular perception, Germany has delivered significant amounts of arms and equipment to Ukraine to aid the country in its fight against the Russian military. In fact, the volume of arms deliveries by Berlin exceeds that of every other country safe for the United States and the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, Germany has faced severe criticism and even mockery for its perceived lack of support to Ukraine and its ill-fated attempts to keep its relationship with Moscow intact. While ultimately positioning itself as a reliable partner of Ukraine, it can be argued that Berlin's communication to affirm its Ukraine stance and explain foreign policy goals has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster." Also, they host import USA bases and helped in other ways.

They can't keep territory because of manpower shortage, but they surely have a million others, they just can't be bothered to get them involved? :-D What you are talking about are the fictional numbers found in Russian documents. This war wouldn't look anything like it did if those numbers matched reality. (As for the numbers lost, see https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

Ukrainian sources put the number lost at nearly double that last time I checked. I am using a number from oryx, who claims to have counted tanks out of commission or being towed from photographs taken in front lines or publicly released arial photography and de-duping them, as they have done for other conflicts like the war in Afghanistan. They actually have the count now at Tanks 774 (of which destroyed: 438, damaged: 21, abandoned: 53, captured: 262), and host all the images used to make their count. I’m sure there are problems with this approach but it seems like the closest thing to an unbiased estimate available to the public right now. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

Oryx made a good point that I hadn't realized until I read it: >*In this context it should be noted that no reports thus far have explicitely mentioned the number of AShMs supposedly launched (as opposed to the number that impacted), so that a scenario in which the Moskva's defences were overwhelmed by a well-planned volley of missiles is not out of the question. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/neptunes-wrath-flagship-moskvas-… Answering this would require some sleuthing as to how many they're estimated to possess. I understand there's been some attacks since (rumored), so they didn't expend all of them, apparently: https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-warship-hit-by-ukranian-anti-ship-mi…

I don't know offhand, though among the more reliable open sources groups seems to be Oryx. They've been reporting on verified losses, but not means of loss so far as I'm aware. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… > This bs from western media has no commitment to truth Western media tends to use Ukrainian claims, generally saying so.

> Well, what would an MBT be replaced with? Don't know, but that is a different question. BTW some/many of the MBT in this war are already equipped with active protection systems e.g Shtora ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shtora-1 ). See the T-80 and T-90 sections here: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

The RuAF has been using the SU-25 Frogfoot in Ukraine. They've lost roughly 9 or so, more than any other aircraft type. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

> Russia has been rather subdued in the Ukraine invasion, but they have won 95%+ of every military engagement in Ukraine: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_engagements... You mean 95% of the ones on that list, which was made by an external observer. It's also a military engagement each time one of their vehicles gets exploded by a TB2 drone strike. Their equipment losses: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… Most of these aren't in battle, it's because their equipment breaks on its own because they didn't maintain the tires for years, or runs out of fuel because everyone in the supply chain sold it for food money. The Wikipedia map is good, but it's also out of date on that page, and the positions haven't moved much since then. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campai…

"for example we only have proof of 2 actual russian air losses, a far cry from the 35-40 claimed by the ukrainian side" We have way more than two Russian air losses proven. This OSINT page maps them fairly well. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ…

54 down, still a ways to go: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… Note that that is a lower bound.

Here is a list of losses for which there is video evidence https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equ… I would assume the number without publicly available video to be 5–10x higher.

NPR reminded me this Saturday about suspicious bombings of Russian citizens in Russia in 1999 (300 killed) which propelled Putin into power. There's some evidence that it was a false flag operation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings false flag operations in Eastern Ukraine: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/false-flag-shenanigans-russian.h…