Nassim Taleb
medium.com/incerto · Personal blog · on HN since 2016
Nassim Taleb, author of the Incerto books, posts essays on risk, probability, intolerance, IQ and the failures of intellectuals.
What HN saysCommenters cite his essays to explain social dynamics, such as the minority-rule piece and the surgeon paradox, and to support arguments about IQ and risk-taking.
303HN people shared it
228linked it in comments
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Most-shared posts
- 1The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority (2016)126 people · 465 points · first shared 2017 · 214 comments on HN
- 2IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle41 people · 444 points · first shared 2019 · 373 comments on HN
- 3The Intellectual yet Idiot22 people · 46 points · first shared 2017 · 3 comments on HN
- 4How to Legally Own Another Person21 people · 20 points · first shared 2017 · 1 comments on HN
- 5Inequality and Skin in the Game20 people · 13 points · first shared 2016 · 2 comments on HN
- 6The Logic of Risk Taking14 people · 168 points · first shared 2017 · 74 comments on HN
- 7Surgeons Should Not Look Like Surgeons14 people · 96 points · first shared 2017 · 78 comments on HN
- 8The Masks Masquerade12 people · 19 points · first shared 2020 · discussion on HN
- 9An Expert Called Lindy — Nassim Taleb (2017)9 people · 13 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN
- 10The Facts Are True, the News Is Fake8 people · 27 points · first shared 2017 · 1 comments on HN
- 11A Clash of Two Systems8 people · 19 points · first shared 2022 · 1 comments on HN
- 12How to be Rational about Rationality8 people · 7 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN
- 13Corporate Socialism: Government Is Bailing Out Investors and Managers Not You6 people · 31 points · first shared 2020 · discussion on HN
- 14How I Write – Nassim Nicholas Taleb6 people · 27 points · first shared 2022 · 7 comments on HN
- 15The Merchandising of Virtue5 people · 19 points · first shared 2017 · 9 comments on HN
What HN people wrote when they linked it
gyanchawdhary · 2025-09-22
For those following along and curious about the tone and intensity of the criticism against Musk and Tesla (both here and in general) this blog post is a solid framework for understanding what drives many of the responses https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
Scrounger · 2025-08-08
Worth reading Re: IQ tests-
https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f1…
poszlem · 2025-07-28
Allow me to recommend “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority” (https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o… to help explain why.
jolux · 2025-05-02
I would if they were the best lawyer available? Their personal appearance is going to be pretty far down my list of concerns. See also Taleb’s Surgeon Paradox: https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e…
braza · 2023-10-13
Not the OP, but being a former follower from him he is a big fan of Nassim Taleb that made some changes in the ergodicity concept to the everyday life in some of his books[1].
[1] - https://medium.com/incerto/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3
hammock · 2023-09-14
Tyranny of the marginal user is a riff on the Nassim Taleb classic "The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority":
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
thworp · 2023-04-11
No, actually it is thoroughly debunked as a measure of anything useful (except scores below ~80) and its significance as a predictor is miniscule. I recommend you read this: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f1…
sph · 2022-11-23
"The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb — https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
"My favorite Erlang program" by Joe Armstrong — https://joearms.github.io/published/2013-11-21-My-favorite-erlang-prog…
remarkEon · 2022-11-20
One of my favorite essays.
“The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
wsc981 · 2022-11-04
> The IYI [Intellectual Yet Idiot] pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited. He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit.
> When plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term “uneducated”. What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: “democracy” when it fits the IYI, and “populism” when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences.
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577
oneng · 2022-06-28
This argument reminds me of Taleb's note on Minority rule:
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
"The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority"
"The black-and-white character of these societal laws can be explained with the following. Assume that under a certain regime, when you mix white and dark blue in various combinations, you don’t get variations of light blue, but dark blue. Such a regime is vastly more likely to produce dark blue than another rule that allows more shades of blue."
One of the bigger bangers from the chapter:
"Yes, an intolerant minority can control and destroy democracy. Actually, as we saw, it will eventually destroy our world."
DantesKite · 2022-05-07
Nassim Taleb wrote a great chapter about this topic and even some expanded some ideas Popper had.
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
chubot · 2022-03-12
And most of the students are amazingly gracious and drop the issue. But some don’t, and they keep complaining and asking for regrades, and if those aren’t accepted they (or their parents) contact the principal/chair/dean/ombudsperson, who are required to have an investigation.
Reminds me of The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
But it's the other side of the coin
The minority rule will show us how it all it takes is a small number of intolerant virtuous people with skin in the game, in the form of courage, for society to function properly.
rglullis · 2022-02-10
First, name one bank that is not willing to provide you service if you don't have a smartphone. Even if you do find it, ask yourself if this is the type of bank that you really want to work with.
Second, how was it that banks managed to operate for centuries and now there is the idea that people simply can not live without a mobile banking app?
Third, minority rule[0]: the best way to make sure that we can see apps being develop for other platforms (not just KaiOS, but Linux devices and even ungoogled AOSP-based systems) is for us to cultivate the intolerant minorities who simply will refuse to run iOS/Android.
Convenience is nice, but freedom is much better.
[0]: https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
hankchinaski · 2021-12-29
there is a greater movement towards open salary policy, i started my job board[0] back in 2018 with this same premise.
Since then, I did not go through one interview without knowing salary band before-hand. Exception made for FAANGs which work on their own terms. Hopefully once the industry start moving into that direction everyone will conform. I think will happen sooner or later due to the very vocal minority[1] in play.
[0] https://golang.cafe
[1] https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
foundron · 2021-09-21
All your points are great, but please don't discourage others to make ethical personal choices. Our culture needs to change and become more compassionate, sustainable and wise in terms the long-term impact of our actions.
How does a culture change? It starts with a courageous minority [1], composed of many individuals, who have "no impact as a consumer" but collectively they do have the power to influence the majority.
[1] https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
zorak · 2020-09-25
Great explanation of the issues here:
https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade-7de897b517b7
tmamic · 2020-09-06
Some people are unable to control their emotions in stressful situations. You can't really know if someone is outraged by you questioning their authority or by the fact that you clearly don't want to hear the truth. Or by their inability to counter other doctors who woo patients with sweet talk, although obviously doing poor medical job.
Some people can't suppress bad habits like using buzzwords. Maybe they have been taught to use them, maybe they are just too good at what they do to need worry about convincing you. Some people are great actors, and will make you believe they are truly passionate about their job. This is what I am talking about: https://medium.com/incerto/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e…
IG_Semmelweiss · 2020-09-05
wealth distribution is not a virtuous goal insofar that we have seen what attempts at the opposite end up causing. Everyone becomes equal, way way down.
What is important, extremely important, but no one talks about - is equality of opportunity. In this regard, more than 50% of all americans will spend at least 1 year in the top 10% of all income. Compare that to most europe, where for example, the same 10 families in france in italy , after many centuries, still hold on to money and power...and never lose either.
That is a worthy goal to keep improving on. It doesn't matter how much anyone amasses - what really matters is that everyone has a fair shot at it, too.
https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb4…
hassancf · 2020-07-04
This is a good read “The Masks Masquerade” by Nassim Taleb of Black Swan fame:
“First error: missing the compounding effect”
...
“Third Error: Mistaking Absence of Evidence for Evidence of Absence”
...
https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade-7de897b517b7
nine_k · 2020-06-04
Because the loudest, the most intolerant wins in a society of decent, nice people:
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
Also, there is no way to abate and come clean of the sin once you've been accused of it loudly enough. The accusation will stick and can ruin your entire remaining life. It's often not worth the risk if your views are moderate, and it's not a life-or-death question.
lhiouyreowiu · 2020-01-14
This is one of the favorites subjects of Nassim Taleb.
> Survival comes first, truth, understanding, and science later
> Judging people on their beliefs is not scientific. There is no such thing as “rationality” of a belief, there is rationality of action. The rationality of an action can only be judged by evolutionary considerations.
https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96…
leto_ii · 2019-10-23
I think this line of thinking can take you dangerously close to the realm of eugenics and social darwinism. I recommend Taleb's take on IQ as some food for thought: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f1…
_the_inflator · 2019-10-15
Have a look at this IQ critic: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f1…
Nassim Taleb has got some very valid points. Forget about IQ, it is not worth the time you focus on it.
lkjhdcba · 2019-08-17
Nassim Taleb wrote a thorough rebuttal of IQ as a concept, if you can trudge through the math:
https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f1…
It's also worth noting that no one in the field of neuroscience (or genetics, for that matter) takes IQ seriously. It's solely an abstract toy for some psychologists to play with.
rb808 · 2019-03-31
I think one of the reasons lots of people liked Piketty is that he produced a huge book that most people didn't read but confirmed their bias, so he became some kind of hero.
Taleb did a pretty good job of taking apart Piketty's work. Its worth reading:
https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb4…
coldtea · 2019-03-11
>Um. "I don't keep a calendar" means "I consider my time more important than yours, so we'll meet at my sole convenience." I would love to do that, but everyone else in the world would rightly understand it that way and would treat it as a refusal to do core elements of my job.
The advice is for free persons, not for us salaried workers.
(Not to mention that TFA already covers this: "I'm totally serious. If you pull it off -- and in many structured jobs, you simply can't" and again later: "Clearly this only works if you can get away with it. If you have a structured job, a structured job environment, or you're a CEO, it will be hard to pull off.").
See also: https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-legally-own-another-person-4145a1802…
simonebrunozzi · 2018-12-25
Taleb. Love him, hate him. Always a lot of controversy.
I like him quite a lot somehow, and there's clearly a good amount of genius in him, although sometimes there are certain positions and affirmations that feel less so (to me at least).
For example, his critique of the growing inequality in the world [0] [1] amounts to pointing at dynamic inequality, not static one. This one never convinced me so far.
To be clear: I fully understand his point; I simply disagree, especially while living in San Francisco and witnessing homeless people every day, walking next to VC multimillionaires.
Anyone able to convince me?
[0]: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/892351059615789057?lang=en
[1]: https://medium.com/incerto/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb4…
dpc_pw · 2018-10-26
I enjoyed your comment. I agree with your reasons, though I don't think they are complete. I am not an expert on academia and I don't claim to be, so I have no solutions. I can just see the parallels and the general mechanisms.
I think Nassim Taleb does the best jobs at explaining the general mechanism of the problem: https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf
PKop · 2018-08-25
An excerpt of his thoughts on this subject, very interesting to contemplate the political implications of this:
"The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority" [0]
[0] https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-o…
"...Clearly can democracy –by definition the majority — tolerate enemies? The question is as follows: “ Would you agree to deny the freedom of speech to every political party that has in its charter the banning the freedom of speech?” Let’s go one step further, “Should a society that has elected to be tolerant be intolerant about intolerance?”