T

Tomi Ahonen

communities-dominate.blogs.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2007

Tomi Ahonen, a mobile industry analyst, writes long analyses of the phone market, Nokia's decline and Stephen Elop's tenure as Nokia CEO.

What HN saysCommenters recommend it for global mobile market numbers and for history of the late-1990s onward phone industry, and for its harsh criticism of Elop.
93HN people shared it
42linked it in comments
99stories submitted
744story points
2 years agolast shared
2007people per year2026

Most-shared posts

  1. 1
    Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?
    6 people · 144 points · first shared 2010 · 92 comments on HN
  2. 2
    American Wall Street's myopic view on Apple vs Nokia
    4 people · 5 points · first shared 2010 · 1 comments on HN
  3. 3
    The Elop Effect
    3 people · 18 points · first shared 2011 · discussion on HN
  4. 4
    Is Stephen Elop the worst CEO ever?
    3 people · 5 points · first shared 2012 · 1 comments on HN
  5. 5
    The Full Story of Nokia and Microsoft (longread)
    3 people · 5 points · first shared 2013 · 1 comments on HN
  6. 6
  7. 7
    The Three Pillars of Nokia's Strategy Have All Failed
    2 people · 101 points · first shared 2012 · 84 comments on HN
  8. 8
  9. 9
  10. 10
  11. 11
    Median phone is Android for first time
    2 people · 2 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN
  12. 12
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  14. 14
  15. 15
    Nokia Under Elop (2013)
    2 people · 1 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN

What HN people wrote when they linked it

Zigurd · 2013-07-17
These must be US numbers. I'd recommend Tomi Ahonen's blog for global numbers http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/ There are some OEMs in the global top 10 that don't show up in US numbers.
cf100clunk · 2025-01-16
Me too, I was there. For those who wish to deep dive into the mobile phone industry's history from the late 1990s and subsequent decades, I highly recommend industry analyst Tomi Ahonen's voluminous (I'm not kidding) blog from back then. I'm providing a link here about Nokia in particular: https://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/nokia/ and especially his scathing take on the events of the Microsoft-Nokia timeframe, wherein as events transpired he frequently reframed his belief that Elop was the "Worst CEO In History".
pjmlp · 2021-03-18
Yes, you can start here > A Finnish newspaper has uncovered information in the SEC filings for Nokia's sale to Microsoft that show former Nokia CEO Stephen Elop had a huge incentive to unload the company in the form of a $25.5 million US bonus that he would get in the event of a "change of control" in the mobile company. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-elop-to-get-25-5m-for-selling… Followed by Tomi T Ahonen posts, https://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/nokia/
bevax · 2018-06-04
How much Microsoft loves open source is also proofed by the case of MeeGo. Their agent, a certain Mr. Elop, hugged it to death. > The first MeeGo device came out in 2011 and won all kinds of awards and is to this date the only flagship consistently ranked better than its contemporary iPhone, while MeeGo is the only OS ever launched in smartphones to be ranked as good as - or in some reviews even better than - Apple's iPhone iOS operating system. THAT was Nokia's strategy in January 2011. Only a delusional idiot would change this. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2016/05/the-nokia-saga-pr…
danohuiginn · 2015-06-17
Anybody who hasn't followed Elop's career might like to catch up with the vitriolic commentary from Tomi Ahonen, who blames him for single-handedly destroying Nokia: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/elop/ I'm sure in a day or two Tomi will post an entertainingly vicious commentary on the fall of Elop.
sangnoir · 2015-06-17
> He is vilified simply because he became the last CEO of a beloved empire which was already gasping for it's last breaths That's being overly generous to Elop. The 'Burning Platform' memo was by his own volition and it played a big part in the decline. This essay nails what Elop did wrong[1] (a bit over-the-top though). Namely, he called his own product crap, and when he distributed the memo, Nokia had no solution ready - they were waiting on Microsoft (Osborne effect). "Hey guys, our phones are currently crap. That Maemo phone you're about to buy - we're discontinuing it. We will have awesome ones sometime in the future though. Remember to by a Nokia ;-)". 1. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/08/coining-term-elop…
lotusleaf1987 · 2011-05-29
Sure and how many will they sell next year? Mario games, as a whole, have sold more than 210 million units: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario One single ringtone, Crazy Frog, made its creators a cool half billion back in 2006: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/09/welcome-stephen-e… Sometimes you're just in the right place at the right time. Also, price/availability makes a huge difference--how many platforms was Angry Birds sold on and how much did it cost compared to Mario? Lady Gaga may outsell the Beatles this year, but in 2015 it's almost near certain the Beatles/Elvis/Frank Sinatra and other classics will still be selling. There is always going to be a demand for new product, but the iconic games/bands/movies are still as relevant as before and there will be demand to have these classics ported to the new medium.
dasil003 · 2010-07-01
The criticism of Tapulous' focus on one app is ignoring the economics of the app store (http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/06/full-analysis-of-… There are tons and tons of amazing, high-quality apps, and yet how many of them ever break into massive profitability? If you have an app store hit, it would be foolish to try to diversify given the near impossibility of any single app attaining real success.
Someone · 2012-11-04
On the other hand, it is easier to walk a well-worn path, especially with money in hand. Samsung has the best hand here. Reading http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/08/smartphone-market… it has 30% of the world market for smartphones. The big problem would not be replacing Google Play, but replacing Google Maps and, to a lesser extent, GMail. In the current climate, one would not think it, but I do not rule out reading a 'Samsung and Apple collaborate in mapping' or 'Samsung and Microsoft collaborate in mapping' headline in a few years time. Also, companies can mutate 'their DNA'; it is not frozen at birth. For example, the Tabulating Machines Company (nowadays called IBM) has reinvented itself several times, and Nintendo started as a manufacturer of playing cards, and DSM (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DSM_(company)) started life as 'The State Mines' and mined coal, but now is, quoting their site "a global science-based company active in health, nutrition and materials".
otoburb · 2012-07-19
None of the other major mobile operating systems (open or closed) have the same cachet as Mozilla. In particular, Mozilla has gone to great lengths to zealously cultivate a consistent image of web-centric ideals above pretty much all else. Other mobile operating systems are tainted by corporate interests, even if only in [mis]perception alone when compared against Mozilla. Mozilla has been trying to reinvent itself and adapt to the mobile onslaught. Increasingly, mobile is being seen as the gateway to billions of people coming online. Mozilla's mission is to "promote openness, innovation and opportunity on the web", and they have seen that desktops are being outsold by mobile units[1] and transitioned accordingly. FirefoxOS is the foundation's big bet on mobile. Beyond just Mozilla's unique position(ing) in the mobile marketplace, IMO the biggest difference between FirefoxOS and other open source mobile operating systems is that they are betting most of the farm on this. Although the article references that "Firefox OS is a strategic project for Mozilla", I believe that Mozilla's long-term success and relevance will hinge on the success of their Firephones. Frankly, I'm really happy and amazed that they've been able to get the number of carriers publicly announcing support in this manner that they did for distribution. Carriers (not necessarily all of the ones listed) don't like how their brands are being potentially diluted and damaged by end-user Android upgrade hell.…
anigbrowl · 2010-04-27
Mr Kennerly, I feel you're being a little disingenuous here. A couple of days ago (before the police involvement) you mentioned this story in another article on your blog(http://www.litigationandtrial.com/2010/04/articles/series/special-comm… saying Gawker Media, publisher of Gizmodo, paid $10,000 to the "finder" of a "lost" prototype iPhone. ($10k was the original rumor about the sum paid). Now, if I may paraphrase, you're saying 'all this for a single phone that is going to be sold to millions anyway? pfff.' But you know it's a prototype, if you've followed the story closely, you know that Gawker did publish "more than information the appearance of the phone": http://gizmodo.com/5520876/the-next-iphone-dissected - such things are not readily ascertainable by proper means, so I don't think IDX v Epic systems is a good comparison. You say there are 'thousands of businesses [that have been wronged] and yet Apple [...] gets preferential treatment.' I can't agree. A quick search of justice.gov for the terms ''economic espionage' arrested' - a different jurisdiction, to be sure, but a similar kind of enforcement - yields over 100 cases of the police power being used on behalf of companies' intellectual property - and as we both know, a comprehensive search through legal databases would turn up many more. We both know that IP theft or misappropriation isn't about the physical devices, DVDs or sheets of…
derf_ · 2023-03-30
With one memo, Stephen Elop [1] drove Nokia's market cap from its peak of over $57b in March of 2010 to a trough of less than $7b in July of 2012 [2]. [1] https://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/08/coining-term-elo… [2] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NOK/nokia/market-cap
rishabhd · 2020-12-21
This reminds me of an old beautiful long read on the decline of Nokia. Warning, 10k word+ read. https://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/07/the-sun-tzu-of-n…
virgilp · 2019-01-30
> However, what I would like to know is whether Apple has lost market share outside of China. Apple has been losing market share for some time, it was relatively flat on units sold while the market was increasing. See e.g. this from a year ago: https://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2018/02/apple-results-fl… > at one point Apple did 20% of all smartphones sold. The last three years? 16%, 15% and now 14%.
Nokinside · 2016-05-25
May 20, 2016 So the Nokia brand returns.. with a Vengeance http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2016/05/so-the-nokia-bran…
diminish · 2015-08-12
As Android soars to over 80% market share cheaper Chinese and Indian brands are dominating the market similar to OEM PC market. Vivo, ZTE, Alcatel, Coolpad, Lenovo, Huawei are a leader kicking Sony, LG, HTC out the market as they did with BlackBerry, Motorola, Nokia.[1] Android One will set the bar even lower. Soon a phablet with 5/6" screen, 4GB memory, a quad core CPU and over 16GB storage with Android One may kill all Android Flagships if Google update promise work fine. Smartphone conversion is topping and market is saturating. Market is reif for a new killer gadget but I don't think it is a watch. [1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/08/smartphone-wars-q…
hippiefahrzeug · 2015-06-04
good one. it's what one famous blogger calls the 'elop effect': http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/08/coining-term-elop…
josh2600 · 2015-04-15
Two words: burning platform. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/06/the-final-reckoni… There was just no reason to write a memo like that. It destroyed their business, almost singlehandedly, and no, I'm not exaggerating. The consequences of that memo were insane: Nokia's handset sales died all over the world all at once.
walterbell · 2015-02-22
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/09/speed-and-power-o… "Chetan Sharma counted the total active SMS user base is now up to 5.9 Billion humans or 91% of all mobile phone owners, in May of 2012. So SMS is nearly 6 times larger by reach than Facebook. SMS is 3 times bigger than TV and has 2.5 times more reach than email. As less people place voice calls from their mobile phones than send SMS text messages, this is the most used telecommunication method - and most used digital media - on the planet. Yes, humble little SMS." Open Standard -> broker -> Walled Gardens?
luka-birsa · 2014-03-09
Long and complex look at how Steven Elop single handendly brought down the Nokia empire: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/09/the-full-story-of… And to think that people were cheering for his "burning-the-ships" memo and his jump to MS.
b1daly · 2013-09-03
You can start here to get a sense of the depth of this man's obsession to highlight how far Nokia has fallen. I find him to be a reasonably entertaining writer, he's crafted a dramatic narrative around the foibles of Nokia. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/ballmer-aftermath…
informatimago · 2013-09-02
winphone is a failure because nokia who once had basically 100% of the smartphone market doens't exist anymore since they switched to winphone. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/10/the-there-pillars…
jpatokal · 2012-10-15
5. Would you happen to be referring to this report about positive sales in China? http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/paging-truth-poli…
luminaobscura · 2012-06-23
> 4) The blame for Nokia's current woes does not lie with Elop and his current strategy. It lies with the previous one. wrong. see http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/12/calculating-the-e…
vibrunazo · 2012-04-29
On the other hand. Both of these points have been true for the past one year. It has been one whole year since WP launched. It's not like it's a brand new comer bringing something the market has never seen anymore. And during this past year, both microsoft and nokia's market share actually decreased [1]. That's with both the points you mentioned, over one year. Don't you agree that's enough empirical evidence that those 2 points, alone, are not enough? [1] http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/03/brutal-truth-abou…
vannevar · 2011-12-23
Your app is actually more successful than most of the apps in the App Store: the median annual income per app is less than $1000. See http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/06/full-analysis-of-… for a good analysis. Income in the app store is distributed according to a power law, which means that the most successful apps make thousands of times more than the average. They are the lottery winners, and nothing you do is likely to put your single app in that category. On the bright side, you've created a cash cow. It requires little maintenance and generates about $100/month. To get that same return from an investment, you'd need a sizable chunk of cash, probably in excess of $25,000. So don't think of your app as a failure, think of it as a $25,000 trust fund. Now go out and create some more.
cageface · 2011-08-05
Here's an article from last year with some numbers: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/06/full-analysis-of-…
andreasjansson · 2011-06-22
In February, Tomi Ahonen compared dropping MeeGo for WP7 to Microsoft in the 80s dropping the first version of Windows a few months before release, and going for Mac OS. Now I think he was right. I guess I'll just hold on to my 2330. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2011/02/first-analysis-of…
maigret · 2011-02-12
Put that in conjunction with that older article about the economics of apps http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/06/full-analysis-of-… . If the numbers here are right, it would be cleverer for most people to make overtime at work, and invest that money wisely - any interest generating investment would then do better. This comics put things in perspective... Coding an app or having a life, that is the question.

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