Collaborative Fund

the recent "the best story wins"[1][2] is a different angle but kind of suggests a similar thing, that our based instincts win, that whatever fits our current context best is easiest to adopt & will be adopted. [1] https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/story/ [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26115902

Really! Why even bother with predictions, except to reveal your biases? Related, some enjoyable wisdom from Morgan Housel (one of my favorite personal finance writers): https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/sure/

I have been following Morgan Housel's (the OP) writings for a while. He has written some excellent essays. In terms of explaining important ideas, they come close to "PG-Level" (Paul Graham) in writing. If you are interested in reading more from Morgan, I recommend the following: 1. The greatest story ever told: "Capitalism’s success is built on a belief – a story – that, given the right incentives, people can work together to solve problems. It’s worked magnificently. It’s the greatest story ever told." http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-greatest-story-ever-told/ 2. The Reasonable Formation of Unreasonable Things "Few things have as much impact on your lifetime investment returns as the decisions you make during bubbles." http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-reasonable-formation-of-unre…

Morgan Housel from Collaborative fund has dealt with it his whole life. he wrote a whole piece that was amazing and very motivating about his continuous battle: http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/overcoming-your-demons/ you can find him on twitter @morganhousel rock on mate.... the world is our oyster and we each have a unique view on it :)

Information, like fast food, is easy and cheap to produce today, mostly horrible for long-term health Worse, I fear most info increases our confidence in decisions while reducing critical thinking At this point, I'm very selective about my media diet. There are only a handful of sources I read weekly (https://every.to/, https://www.productlessons.xyz/, https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/); all my other free time is spent on hobbies I enjoy

- https://www.milkroad.com/ - https://topstartups.substack.com/ - https://latecheckout.substack.com/ - https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/

Mentioning M2 without mentioning the accounting change that completely changes the graph starting May 2020 is very odd. Of course the percent change is large when you start measuring a different thing from before. The simplest explanation of accounting change can be found here: https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-fed-isnt-printing-as-much-m… But the St Louis fed also publishes a disclaimer at the bottom of their graph about it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

> Does anyone know why the Inferno appears to be more widely read than Purgatorio or Paradiso? "If it bleeds, it leads." Bad news gets more attention than good news, and what could be more bad than seeing people suffer in hell? * https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-seduction-of-pessimism/

http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/tech/ Found it by searching https://www.google.com/search?q=tv+radio+innovation+polio+vaccine+adop…

Basically luck, survivorship bias. See Morgan Housel's Psychology of Money book, and this passage about luck and risk in it: https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

"be given equal weight" By whom, that is the question? By the listener? Probably no. But once you get committees and probably bots (b/c there is not enough people to judge the entire information flow of today) that decide the weight of X using some flexible criteria for others out there, the bad actors will do their utmost to influence them and get them under control. And, ten years from now, hey presto! Whatever the Prime Minister does not like, will be classified as misinformation. This system is accountable to Darwin, not Newton. It evolves. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/darwin-newton/

I worked in the news industry for about 5 years, and, once I left the 24/7 cycle, I sort of instinctively understood the half-life of information and began to stop paying attention to the news. I was later pleasantly surprised to see this concept formalized in a few places, notably from Morgan Housel[1], Nassim Taleb[2] and Samuel Arbesman[3]. These men’s writing really crystallized what I had learned from experience but didn’t have a framework to explain. It is of course a privilege to ignore the news completely. I don’t advocate totally unplugging. But once you better understand the material value of information, you can make better decisions about what to consume. [1]http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/expiring-vs-lt-knowledge/ [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life_of_knowledge

Ditto. This reminds me of write-up by Morgan Housel: long-term knowledge vs expiring knowledge[0]. To optimize that trade-off, I generally try to review, on a weekly basis, what I consume from the internet-verse. This has helped me in some ways. Not sure if it's gonna work or not for other people... Plus, moving the scale towards consuming long-forms is also helping me out. (I guess it depends on what type of bubble you are wrapping yourself into. For instance, only visiting specific sub-reddit and LW topics intentionally has been advantageous to me...)... [0] - https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/expiring-vs-lt-knowledge/

www.nesslabs.com www.waitbutwhy.com www.moretothat.com www.daedtech.com www.kalzumeus.com https://medium.com/the-year-of-the-looking-glass https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/authors/morgan/ https://nav.al/how-to-get-rich —- not personal blog per se but collection of all personal interviews. Excuse the clickbaitish title, it is not a pitch of any kind.

I dunno, I quite like Morgan Housel's take, namely: No one has any idea how long this cycle can go. Australia hasn’t had a recession in 28 years. The rule of thumb is that unless you predicted the expansion would last this long you don’t get to predict when or how it will end. Which means basically no one gets to predict when or how it will end. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/its-been-a-while/

Reminds me of 3. Rich man in the car paradox. When you see someone driving a nice car, you rarely think, “Wow, the guy driving that car is cool.” Instead, you think, “Wow, if I had that car people would think I’m cool.” Subconscious or not, this is how people think. The paradox of wealth is that people tend to want it to signal to others that they should be liked and admired. But in reality those other people bypass admiring you, not because they don’t think wealth is admirable, but because they use your wealth solely as a benchmark for their own desire to be liked and admired. http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

I didn't know about MMM, thanks for that. I've learned about this phenomenon on a different website [1] and amazed by it. Small investments over a long period makes a huge difference but still, you need a long enough period or put huge amounts at the right time of the market. S&P 500 has worst performance of -3% over 10 year period. It gets better after 15 years and so on. Investing and hoping to retire early during this window is certainly not going to work. I think everybody who works 9-5 should read the story about Grace Groner in [1]. It was a real eye opener for me. [1] https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

Yes, I see what you mean... and agree with you: There seems to be much faking of authenticity and faking of opulence today. :-( PS. Your comments remind me of the "Rich man in the car paradox" -- see #3 here: http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/archive/ - not just one individual but a few. Entrepreneurship, finance, tech. "Every investor is making bets on the future. It’s only called speculation when you disagree with someone else’s bet. In hindsight there was as much speculation in the 1990s that Kodak and Sears would keep their market share as there was that eToys and Pets.com would gain market share. Both were bets on the future. Both were wrong. It happens. Of course there’s a speculation spectrum. But let’s not pretend that others speculate while you only deal with certainties." https://cryptohayes.medium.com/ - Arthur Hayes blog. Crypto trading mostly. "I am an arbitrage trader at heart. In May 2013 brimming with my experience as a delta one trader, I entered the crypto capital markets. The first trade I ever put on was buying Bitcoin from Mt. Gox, depositing them on ICBIT, then selling BTC/USD June 2013 inverse futures contracts at a premium. My first trade captured a premium of 200% per annum (PA). When the futures expired, and my PNL matched my spreadsheet calculations exactly, I thought to myself, holy shit, “Bitcoin is LIT!”"