CGD Blog

> These things are balancing out lately What measures and data do you base that claim on? https://www.cgdev.org/blog/update-lives-lost-usaid-cuts "lives lost based on the decline in outlays (current spending) may be in the range of 500,000 to 1,000,000 and potential lives lost based on the decline in obligations (commitments to future spending) are between 670,000 and 1,600,000." What is your best estimate of deaths due to "woke" or whatever you consider the scourge of the "past decade" to be? How many visas revoked due to the holder being not woke enough? How many people were deported from the US for being insufficiently woke? And so on. "Woke" may not be what you meant. Whatever you meant, present your measure and data.

The main problem with global emissions is with developing countries who are increasing their emissions while at the same time taking up a greater share of global emissions than developed countries. See: https://www.cgdev.org/media/developing-countries-are-responsible-63-pe…

BS headlines everywhere. Straight from the study: https://cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-exc… "Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest that the death toll from the pandemic is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count of 400,000;" But no one is adding this disclaimer, everyone is just parroting the 4 million number. Another thing to ponder, if this amount of people had died, do foreigners really think Indian people would have sat silently? There may be underreporting or missing stats, but I doubt if it is a 10x difference.

It's not an outcome I'm particularly worried about. There are a lot of countries with a median GDP per capita greater than or roughly equivalent to the United States[1] with more robust social welfare states and lower GINI coefficients[2]. I'm much more concerned about the effects of runaway inequality. [1]: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/world-bank-poverty-statistics-lack-median-i… [2]: https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm

That claim seems to have originated in this article from Mawson Infrastructure Group [1]: > According to a recent post by the Center for Global Development, Christmas lights consume a whopping 6.63 terawatt-hours in the US alone, with the global figure being substantially higher across the rest of the world. The tiny state of El Salvador, for instance, consumes 5.35 terawatts for Christmas lights, and the African nation of Tanzania stands at 4.81 terawatts. Add these figures up all over the globe and you soon discover that bitcoin isn’t the energy consumer that many environmentalists lead people to believe – at least not compared to Christmas lights. This is the post from the Center for Global Development that Mawson is using [2]. The relevant paragraph says: > A 2008 study from the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that decorative seasonal lights accounted for 6.6 billion kilowatt hours of electricity consumption every year in the United States. That’s just 0.2% of the country’s total electricity usage, but it could run 14 million refrigerators. It’s also more than the national electricity consumption of many developing countries, such as El Salvador, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nepal, or Cambodia. That is followed by a chart that shows the national consumption of El Salvador, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nepal, and Cambodia, and the decorative holiday light consumption of the US. Mawson misunderstood that chart. The 5.35 tWh for El Salvador and 4.81…

Shrinking consumption would mean either that developing countries would need to stay in poverty forever, or to somehow find a way to greatly impoverish people in the developed nations that would not lead to widespread rioting. Additionally, the bulk of world emissions currently comes from developing countries: https://www.cgdev.org/media/developing-countries-are-responsible-63-pe… So shrinking consumption in developed countries would be far from enough. We'd need to find a way to make China, for instance, accept that they should accept a vast diminution in their living standards in order to satisfy mostly Western activists. Solutions to climate change based on shrinking consumption or reducing growth in general are political and technical nonstarters. We need to focus on decoupling growth and consumption from resource usage and emissions. Only by developing the technology to do so do we have any hope to mitigate the effects of climate change.

I'm sorry to hear about your experience and as an American who lived in a few European cities I know what you mean, some neighborhoods are decidedly un-European, but I would partially blame that not on the immigrants but on policies that bring in so many at once. Of course there is no need to assimilate when there is a huge neighborhood of people just like you... imagine the driving culture if you brought a million Cairo cab drivers to Singapore? But if you bring 50 a year, they assimilate. That said, I'm pretty sure most economists (other than Borjas perhaps, whose seminal work on the Mariel boatlift seems critically flawed) would broadly disagree with you about the net economic benefits being negative and I would love if you could share that paper. https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2017/07/13/a-world-of-free-move… https://www.cgdev.org/blog/what-mariel-boatlift-cuban-refugees-can-tea…

I have read that. He concedes the study is valid and the problems real and difficult. Then he adds his own opinion that nevertheless it's worth it. > In the short term, he writes, there are clearly challenges, but over the long haul, he argues that diversity has a range of benefits for a society, and that the fragmentation and distrust can be overcome. It’s not an easy process, but in the end it’s “well worth the effort.” “well worth the effort”. That's pretty subjective. I'm sure many would like to avoid "fragmentation and distrust" in the first place. > One study isn't enough by itself. There are many similar studies: "A higher degree of ethnic diversity is associated with a higher incidence of civil conflict" - https://www.cgdev.org/doc/events/02.09.07/Matuszeski-JMP.pdf I mean, this stuff is intuitive for anybody with a sense of history. To be clear I'm not arguing against diversity per se. I raise these points to encourage us (as a society) to discuss - and not emote - these issues honestly.

The potential gains, especially from freer immigration, are astounding. "The gains from eliminating migration barriers dwarf---by an order of a magnitude or two---the gains from eliminating other types of barriers. For the elimination of trade policy barriers and capital flow barriers, the estimated gains amount to less than a few percent of world GDP. For labor mobility barriers, the estimated gains are often in the range of 50–150 percent of world GDP." [1] A typical example: "Take a male construction worker in the capital of Ghana. There isn’t much you could do to greatly raise his economic productivity in Ghana; access to better tools or training might make him modestly more productive. But if you let the exact same person emigrate to work at a construction site in any big U.S. city, his economic productivity would rise roughly 700% to 1,000%." [2] [1] Clemens, Michael A. 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3): 83-106. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.25.3.83 [2] http://www.cgdev.org/blog/trillion-dollar-bills-sidewalk-why-don%E2%80…

Why does your cost-benefit calculation not include the benefits to those foreign workers who are allowed to compete for jobs in the U.S.? The academic literature* shows much, much larger productivity and income gains to those who migrate to richer countries than any negative effect to native workers. Even if an influx of immigrants depressed some existing Americans' wages by a small amount, that delta would only pale in comparison to how much better of the immigrants would be. Do you oppose efforts to educate more American's as computer scientists? This too would "depress" the wages of existing computer scientists but you would (hopefully) find it abhorrent if someone used your "wage depression" logic to stop teaching CS in inner-city schools. Unless you think that the lives of non-American's are not worth considering, these hugely positive impacts of immigration should be part of your calculation. * http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~jkennan/research/OpenBorders.pdf?new http://www.cgdev.org/files/1425376_file_Clemens_Economics_and_Emigrati…

This reminds me of the account of NGOs ( Non Governmental Organizations )- key functionaries in the dispensation of foreign aid - in Jim Rogers' book, Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip, something I read many many years ago: "Even in countries with no roads to speak of, Mercedes service is available – often to the exclusion of things like food – thanks to all the US foreign aid, the IMF, and World Bank money being shipped in. It is no secret that this money is aimed at nourishing only those corrupt enough to get their hands on it, while at the same time fattening the bureaucrats on both sides of the transaction who diligently work the trough. And none of them is driving a Chevy. I knew much of this from my last trip. The upcoming trip, especially as it took us through Africa, would be an eye-opening education into the workings of the latest foreign aid scam: the nongovernmental organization, or NGO. As an American taxpayer, I would be amazed to discover that a lot of the money we send to these countries goes to support Mercedes and BMW dealers and various Swiss bankers." "After cocoa, the commodity produced in greatest abundance in the Ivory Coast is to be found in the commercial capital, Abidjan, one of the more cosmopolitan cities in West Africa: NGO bureaucrats. They grow here in enormously high concentration, even for Africa. They and their like have been directing Africa’s destiny for centuries. One might wonder…

The original article [1] found via [2] It is pointed out being near ie proximity doesn't indicate exposure. The more interesting results would be what the residential areas lead levels are in both ground and dust in the air. [1] https://www.cgdev.org/blog/millions-children-go-school-near-toxic-site [2] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/leecrawfurd_battery-recycling-boom-expo…

It’s not just cutting food support. Hundreds of thousands of people have died because we cut USAID. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/update-lives-lost-usaid-cuts

Bin Ladin vaccine program: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-os… https://www.cgdev.org/blog/white-house-bans-cia-use-vaccine-programs-c… killing of vaccine workers: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10185917/ Not made up. Although I would understand why people might think it's crazy enough that it would be.

Current estimates are 500,000-1,000,000 directly from aid cuts https://www.cgdev.org/blog/update-lives-lost-usaid-cuts with 1.6 million deaths projected.

He's not just the leader, he's the primary beneficiary, and he's a blatant white supremacist. He's arguably responsible for the deaths of over 1 million people world wide from his short tenure shutting down USAID[0]. So yeah, I'd say its more than fine to take pleasure in his failings. [0] https://www.cgdev.org/blog/update-lives-lost-usaid-cuts

>I find it odd to completely disavow someone because you don’t agree 100% with their politics. "politics": https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/usaid-shutdown-has-led-to-hundreds-of-th… https://www.cgdev.org/blog/update-lives-lost-usaid-cuts https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)011…

Regardless of your opinion of maduro, you can still acknowledge that if the head of a sovereign state enacts policies that result in the mass emigration of 8M to neighboring countries, destabilizing all of them [1],[2] in the process, exporting criminal enterprises, any affected head of the affected government certainly has casus belli on said head of state. The policy of no aggression applies. If a government, thru its actions (or inactions) causes massive aggression and hurt on your own people, then its your *duty* as elected official, to stop it and protect your citizens Self-defense is literally the most important mandate a government can have. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/crime-migration-specter-tren-de… [2] https://www.cgdev.org/publication/data-against-fear-what-numbers-say-a…

Third world countries are the biggest polluters from ruining their rivers and in emissions.[1][2] but the biggest thing that makes me made is people posting misinformation on the internet while acting righteous about it. [1] https://www.cgdev.org/media/developing-countries-are-responsible-63-pe… [2] https://www.conserve-energy-future.com/most-polluted-rivers-world.php

Sorry I didn't provide any references but they're only a google search away. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/air-pollution-hurts-poores… https://www.cgdev.org/media/developing-countries-are-responsible-63-pe… https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/one-three-countrie… I'm sure you could argue that their pollution is worse due to all of the trade with wealthier countries, fair enough, but currently the only solution to that would deprive them of the vast majority of their income and would set those countries back decades if not centuries given that trade is a major driver of development within any country.

This premise was discussed a few times prominently on HN, and it appears to be accurate. There is an initial surge in people leaving as a country climbs economically; then it tapers off and reverses after you get rich enough to support what I would guess is a broad middle class quality of life. "New Research Confirms that Migration Rises as the Poorest Countries Get Richer" "As GDP per capita rises, so do emigration rates. This relationship slows after roughly US$5,000, and reverses after roughly $10,000" https://www.cgdev.org/article/new-research-confirms-migration-rises-po…

While I don't agree with your conclusions, part of your arguments are correct: > Measure by the standard of living, not monetary units. From the paper below: "This reflects considerably stronger global convergence in quality of life than in income" https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/technology-and-development-e…

Study can be found here: https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/three-new-estimates-indias-a…

You really don't think the US has a weaker social safety net and less solidarity than Europe? And the issue isn't necessarily immigration per se as ethnic fractionalization. E.g. if a ton of French expats were to immigrate to France that would create different levels of social strife than, say, a ton of Russians entering France. There have been many studies on this, e.g. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2586963?seq=1 https://www.nber.org/papers/w20504 http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4551797 https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/archive/doc/events/EthnicPub…

The Guardian article by Hickel is misinforming readers. Hickel just wants attention for himself. Nothing else. He does not care about the steps the world's poorest have made. Yes, small steps, but it's important and it's awful to spread misinformation like he does. (Also, for The Guardian he chose the headline 'Bill Gates says poverty is decreasing. He couldn’t be more wrong' and elsewhere Hickel is acknowledging that this is not true and is contradicting himself: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/12-things-we-can-agree-about-global-poverty…

Only China / Russia / Korea can currently push platforms because of dictatorship and censorship. You are forgetting that the WTO was already asked by multiple countries for help. There are other options than China ;) The source of the money is partially already from Europe and America. China borrows a lot of money too. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/china-borrows-lot-money-world-bank-and-that…

And that's for travelling. Think about how many people struggle in their home country with very few chances to try it out in a better place for them. As Nancy Birdsall puts it [1]: "No other circumstance of birth — not race, gender, ethnicity, or parental socioeconomic status — so completely determines life chances as the nation of birth, essentially because of border restrictions on the mobility of labour". [1] https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/9781933286105-Pritchett-let-…

I'm not sure that true. As in - not true at all, unless you really want to believe it to be true. No, 70% of foreign aid is not 'stolen off the top' http://www.politifact.com/global-news/statements/2017/jan/17/rand-paul… How Much Aid is Really Lost to Corruption? https://www.cgdev.org/blog/how-much-aid-really-lost-corruption Where does aid money really go -- and what is it spent on? http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/09/opinion/where-does-aid-money-really-… While there are large issues on the way foreign aid is distributed, including corruption and more recently local NGOs being sidelined, it's nowhere near close to your "perhaps $0.1" estimate of reaching locals. The idea that almost all the assistance is wasted is not only untrue, but harmful.

At its peak in 2010, the US gave Pakistan 4.5 billion dollars in aid [1] (although in more recent years this value has decreased). That sort of money can buy a lot of cooperation. [1] http://www.cgdev.org/page/aid-pakistan-numbers