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Adventures in Capitalism
adventuresincapitalism.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2016
Adventures in Capitalism is a finance blog with bearish, contrarian takes on markets, Bitcoin, ESG, energy, and Tesla.
What HN saysHN commenters link its posts on Bitcoin as a reflexive Ponzi, oil storage trading, and energy policy risks.
15HN people shared it
4linked it in comments
12stories submitted
99story points
4 years agolast shared
2016people per year2026
Most-shared posts
- 1Bitcoin: Why This Reflexive Ponzi Scheme Will Continue5 people · 6 points · first shared 2020 · discussion on HN
- 2Will ESG create the next Lehman moment?2 people · 3 points · first shared 2022 · 2 comments on HN
- 3The Problem with Ponzis1 people · 79 points · first shared 2021 · 28 comments on HN
- 4SNAPageddon1 people · 2 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN
- 5The Profitless Prosperity Sector Will Collapse1 people · 2 points · first shared 2019 · discussion on HN
- 6When Will the Tesla Stock Promote Finally Fail??1 people · 2 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN
- 7The Woodstock of Crony Capitalism1 people · 2 points · first shared 2016 · discussion on HN
- 8The Profitless Prosperity Sector1 people · 1 points · first shared 2019 · discussion on HN
- 9Q3 Results Secured1 people · 1 points · first shared 2018 · discussion on HN
- 10Mall Tour 20171 people · 1 points · first shared 2017 · discussion on HN
- 11Crude contango1 people · first shared 2020
What HN people wrote when they linked it
b0mbadilh0le · 2022-01-27
Here's an excellent article about how our damning of cheap, reliable, "dirty" energy is going to push us into a crisis that dwarfs anything in recent memory. What happens when energy isn't cheap and isn't available?
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/09/29/will-esg-create-the-next…
sixQuarks · 2020-04-20
Empty Oil tankers. They are charging over $300,000 per day for storage now. Some think this is the greatest trading opportunity in over a decade.
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/03/19/crude-contango/
noname123 · 2021-04-17
I've thought about and looked into this. I heard some brokers actually allow you to custody your bitcoins with them, so basically you're 100% hedged and have 0 margin hit when you execute this pair trade. Additionally, if you can borrow 7:1 on Portfolio Margin for this 5BTC trade for both the long and short side… it becomes a reasonable trade. The question is, can you find a broker that allows you PM on crypto and could custody (or know you have the coins and allow you to HODL the short side in the face of a face-ripper rally of the underlying??).
I've also thought about doing some kind of vol arb - if I can sell calls on some optionable over-priced crypto proxies like MSTR; and then buy calls on presumably more efficient BTC options on futures on CME to neutralize the delta and gamma.
Greyscale also has an offering program for accredited investors that allows you to fund and buy their GBTC shares at NAV and be able to redeem back the shares after 6 months - and capture what used to be 20-40% premium over NAV (https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/11/24/why-this-reflexive-ponzi… But I believe that premium returned back to a discount recently. So no edge is not there anymore.
But you're 100% correct, there are so many issues exploiting inefficiencies in crypto despite that it is an emerging market. Exchange risk, risk of self-custody, lack of liquidity in derivatives. Best of luck!