Willy Report
willyreport.wordpress.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2014
An anonymous analyst's blog that investigated suspicious trading bots on the Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange, known as the Willy and Markus bots.
What HN saysHN commenters cite it as the original source for claims that Mt. Gox bots inflated bitcoin's price in 2014, suggesting more than incompetence.
16HN people shared it
13linked it in comments
3stories submitted
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- 1Fraudulent trading activity at Mt. Gox13 people · 654 points · first shared 2014 · 131 comments on HN
- 2Homepage4 people · first shared 2014
What HN people wrote when they linked it
sillysaurus3 · 2015-01-17
We have to remember that for every bitcoin sold (at any price), someone on the other side of the transaction is still buying those bitcoins.
Actually, "an exchange made it look like someone bought a coin." https://willyreport.wordpress.com/
Bitcoin probably can't ever prevent good old insider manipulation, because every exchange affects every other exchange due to arbitrage. A price jump of $20 on BTC-e will swiftly travel to Bitstamp and everyone else. So if BTC-e decides to do something similar to what Mt. Gox did, there's nothing stopping them. All it takes is one shady popular exchange.
Bitcoin's dependency on exchanges is its greatest strength and weakness. Without exchanges, you probably wouldn't be able to sell bitcoins locally except in a sporadic way. There wouldn't really be an agreed-on price. But with exchanges, herd dynamics are always in full bloom, and you won't ever escape them.
EDIT: People buy and sell bitcoins at current market rate, and current market rate is defined by exchanges. That means if an exchange decides to make their own price artificially jump up, then everyone else's price will jump up too. That means bitcoin's price will be defined partly by whatever insider manipulation is going on at the time.
thisisit · 2018-01-15
Wow, this paper's conclusion is delayed by 3 years. Willy and Markus bots are old news for anyone who has been following bitcoin closely. The source of all these allegations was this blog appearing in 2014:
https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of…
cstrat · 2017-12-06
The value of BTC skyrockets back in 2014 with MtGox due to the WillyBot (https://willyreport.wordpress.com)...
The price of BTC on other exchanges (which had no direct trades from that bot) was still affected and it went up across the board on all exchanges.
So the value of BTC can be manipulated...
canvia · 2014-06-27
The Willy Report makes it seem like there was more at play than simply incompetence: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/
corford · 2019-11-04
WilyBot v2.... https://willyreport.wordpress.com/
nosuchthing · 2017-11-06
That assumes there's an immediate withdraw method on the exchange with higher rates.
MTGox abused the latency of withdraws in an attempt to attract BTC desposits (after their original deposits were stolen) on their exchange and presumably sell those back for cash via other outlets to slowly pay off customers and appear solvent.
MTGox also manipulated the market with trader bots.
https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of…
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/may/29/bitcoin-bots-bought…
canoebuilder · 2017-09-20
It's possible that similar things could be occurring, knowing bitcoin, probably expected.
One thing to note is that the vast majority of "mainstream" interest and institutional investment came about because of the surge in pricing caused by the willy bot[0]. People saw this and interpreted it as broad-based interest and demand for btc, while the actual situation was more about a French Jewish Japanophile, deploying some shenanigans in an unregulated market trying to get the head of his embattled exchange business back above water.
So in a way the willy-bot situation has triggered all the subsequent irrational exuberance.
[0]https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of…
xxxxxxxx · 2017-06-22
A very weak article - is it really surprising that someone who had access to the back end was able to buy enough to drive the price up?
There is a better version of the story here:
https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of…
fru2013 · 2015-08-01
An interesting read for those who may have not seen it yet: "The Willy Report".[1] I would not be surprised at all if this was exactly what happened.
[1] https://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of…
dmm · 2014-09-06
It's hard to say yet how much of an effect MtGox price manipulation had too. Have you seen this report?
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-…
coryking · 2014-06-04
Since it has such low liquidity, it is also manipulated to hell and back by various bots, exchanges, scammers, etc. There was an article floating around that showed most of the last price rise was beside of a bot operating on MtGox:
http://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-…
Nothing is stopping another exchange or malicious person from doing the same thing.
joliv · 2014-05-25