Recurrent

I have a 5 year old EV with around 95% of its original battery capacity. I think battery degradation of newer EVs will not be the limiting factor in their lifetime or in transitioning from combustion vehicles. Under 1% of EVs from 2016 or newer have had battery replacements. https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last Early EVs skewed that a bit by having poor thermal and charging management of their batteries. Newer chemistries and packs with active thermal management reduce the issues significantly. Different chemistries also have varying lifetimes. LFP batteries trade a bit of energy density for greater resiliency to charge cycles over their lifetime.

I believe the SoC (state of charge) history is recorded for Teslas and other EVs. There is a company called Recurrent [1] which uses this data to estimate battery degradation. I think the idea is to generate something like a Carfax report for used EV battery packs. [1] https://www.recurrentauto.com/

Just a bit of cursory research provides some evidence counter to your confident assertions. It's fine if you don't like EVs or like the idea of them becoming popular, but it's worth doing a little reading first. - In the US in 2025, 35% of vehicle shoppers say they are at least "somewhat likely" to consider purchasing an EV, with 24% saying they are "very likely" to do so. [1] - Among younger consumers, more than two-thirds of Gen Z (72%) and Millennials (70%) say they would consider purchasing an EV. [2] - In Germany, EV purchase intent rose 8 percentage points in a single year, with 30% of consumers planning a fully electric vehicle as their next car, which is the highest BEV intent of any surveyed European country. [3] - The median range of new EVs hit a record high of 283 miles per charge for the 2024 model year, more than four times higher than in 2011. [4] - The average EV range in 2025 has increased a further 4% over 2024, now reaching 293 miles, while fast charging speeds have improved 7% over the 2024 model year. [5] - DC fast chargers can bring an EV battery to 80% charge in as little as 20 minutes. [6] - In 2025, battery electric cars reached a historic 19% share of all new car registrations across Europe - the highest annual share ever recorded - with total volumes up around 31% compared to 2024. [7] - Germany and France reached a combined battery electric and plug-in hybrid market share of 30% and 27%, respectively, while Italy and Spain are catching up…

The author is claiming way more (and worse) than they can actually back up. Different EVs actually get different percentages of their nominal mileage, and then respond differently to cold weather. I like this one for range under semi-optimal conditions. https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/ Here's some "winter effect" info for different models. https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss I'd take that second one with a little grain of salt, though. I know that my 2022 Nissan Leaf SV+ gets more than the 175 miles they claim for summer (as long as I keep my speed down which is another factor OP seems to ignore). Haven't really given it a real winter workout, but I'd expect that number to be a bit higher than that table's 125 too. That's a very far cry from OP's claim of only ~110 miles. Some might try to dismiss that as anecdata, but so is OP. Claims based on their one empirical observation, failing to account for known confounders and clearly wrong for a second sample, are kind of worthless. I'm not trying to propose any grand theory like they are. Find out the right numbers for your vehicle, routes, temperatures, and driving style.

> The company analyzed the real-world winter driving range of thousands of electric vehicles and found the Tesla Model Y retained most of its EPA-rated range in winter. This Axios article is from March, 2022 and has incorrect data. In particular it's wrong about the Tesla results. The Axios chart claims the Model Y achieves 97% of its EPA range in 70°F and 98% of its EPA range in 20-30°F. They're claiming the Model Y does better in cold weather. Here is updated data from Recurrent as of December 2022: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss What's new in the updated data is that Recurrent has included verified real world winter range tests. Previously they were relying on dashboard data and Teslas don't give you good information. Recurrent says, "As evidenced below, it appears in the Model 3 dashboard data that there is almost no change in available range in cold or hot conditions." But now, "New to 2022, we have added observed, real-world range fluctuations to our Tesla data. The dotted line below shows the range as observed from on-board devices and energy usage. This shows a more expected decrease in winter range, although Tesla's thermal management is still great at controlling cold weather range loss." What Recurrent now says for the Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD is: > Observed Range at 20-30F: 49% of Original EPA Range > Observed Range at 70F: 64% of Original EPA Range So even at 70°F the Model Y only attains 64% of its rated EPA range in…

Used EV prices are rising, especially at the low end: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-re… People who want EVs to save money aren't interested in buying brand new, expensive luxury EVs but that's where the supply was.

where did you get that number? parts and labour is $15,000 to $22,000 from all sources I can find. Heres one: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/tesla-battery-replacement-costs

Just like for ICE buyers will learn about the important things about EV choice and ownership. An EV maker that sells parts at inflated prices including the battery will get less and less customers. As those customers look at catalog prices for important parts including the battery before buying an EV. Random web page on the topic: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/costs-ev-battery-replacement Another listing price: https://evshop.eu/en/13-batteries Note the used LFP 55 kWh tesla pack at $4140 so ... $75/kWh.

I believe most new EVs have heat pumps [0], but this wasn't common until a couple years ago. [0] https://www.recurrentauto.com/questions/which-electric-vehicles-have-h…

"In our 2023 reliability survey, 17 percent of 2013 Tesla Model S owners told us their cars needed battery pack replacements at a cost of $15,000 each." This is 11-12 years in. Granted, perhaps batteries were just crappier back then, but 17% is a scary high number for me. Also: "This is in line with data from Recurrent, a firm that analyzes and measures EV battery performance, which found that 13 percent of EVs older than 2015 needed battery replacements. By comparison, only 1 percent of EVs newer than 2016 needed new batteries. " The source of some of the data. What happened with 2020 vehicles?! https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

You might want to factor latitude into your calculations. https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss

Sure, but I'm not pointing out the longevity of the batteries, but rather the maintenance cost if/when they fault. I understand it will get better over time as technology improves, but it's been a large impediment to me (and probably others) from investing in them. Here's a recent synopsis that suggests 50% of the car value on average back in 2020 [1]. [1]: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/costs-ev-battery-replacement

Sorry, the 70% generic capacity was information from bad sources. But currently I personally still consider the battery as too high risk for an used EV vehicle that does not have warranty left. 85%-90% seems to be closer to reality among all brands. The issue is that we don't have actually that much data available to say anything for sure for the newest cars. Variance is too high for battery failures: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last > Yep, hate my scheduled pre-heated, defrosted car that’s fully charged every morning at 1/5th of the price per mile and does all the journeys I need. Wish I was spending 5x to stand at a pump once a week. Totally useless. This is kinda too big generalization. Not everyone has access to heated garage nor charging station with personal electric plan.

In the hypothetical case that an EV's battery needs to be replaced, yes that will be a very expensive repair / maintenance cost. But that's not common, no more common than an engine rebuild / replacement; one source I found [0] says about 13% of EVs from before 2015 have had / needed a battery replacement, and 30% of cars from 2011. I can't find any reliable figures on car engine replacements, other than that on average, one is needed after 200.000 miles - but if maintained well, car engines can last much longer. [0] https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

Here's data on EV battery replacement rates: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last Replacements do happen, but a lot of them are under warranty. Batteries are lasting longer than people expected, mainly due to really good management systems. These days the industry expects them to usually last the life of the car, though that allows for a range reduction down to 70% of the original. Further tweaks to battery chemistry will probably improve things further. I might not buy an EV with 100K miles on it just yet, but I'd do 30K; a lot of the warranties go to 100K. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric-car-batte…

Consistent with the Recurrent results! https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss#:~:text=Th…

battery aging really is not a big issue, especially with Tesla batteries. The LFP chemistry used in standard range models should last even longer. Chart with degradation: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last#:… Tesla temselves said they see 12% degradation after 200,000 miles. Plenty of ICE engines would struggle to reach that mileage. https://electrek.co/2023/04/25/tesla-update-battery-degradation/

In no particular order: - I'm cheap, and they're not. - tablet UX sucks. - dangling an extension cord out of my apartment window also sucks. - FSD is a lie. - baby it's cold outside: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss - I have a perfectly good ICE car that is fully paid off and I intend to drive it into the ground and it's only got 75k on the odo and it'd better be good for another 200. - I am waiting for the Cambrian explosion of EVs to chill out - Elon's an ass.

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss See the chart here. (source from article)

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-re… says 1/4th of EV sales in Q2 2022 were used vehicles. with an average price of 40k although this is all complicated by a shortage in EV production.

I'm not in line for a Tesla either, and the Mach-E does look nice. Their latent flaw is that they shed range much more than other EVs in cold weather: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss

> No, it's not. That's why some manufacturers offer much longer warranties than others despite having similar reliability numbers. Warranty terms are driven by the business and encompass a lot more than mean time to first failure. What's an example of this controlled for the price of the car? > If warranties were a good approximation of how long things last without repair, why would that only apply in the car world? Warranties are a good approximation in the context of cars. Virtually all other consumer devices have a 1 year warranty so it's not really a distinguishing feature. In any case, warranty aside the reason I even brought it up is because many manufacturers warranties imply potential for up to 30% degradation after about 8 years which is why I used the numbers I used (https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last)

Source for the data: https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/winter-ev-range-loss - which is IMO a better report than the Axios news article.

What a crappy article. One can't complain NYT is too pro-EV. This problem is a combination of growing pains, uneducated EV drivers, old EVs with crappy batteries, some bad infrastructure, and EV manufacturers that don't put enough diagnostics. 1. Ask anyone who has lived in these kinds of cold temperatures. Cold starts in ICEs are always a problem. in upstate NY, you always need a pair of jumper cables ready. you might get to where you're going, and then can't make it back. 2. Different battery chemistries have different cold vs. warm characteristics. Surprise, surprise, the newer, better, more expensive battery packs don't suffer in the cold as much. The loss can be as low as 3% (Jaguar I-Pace) to 30% (Ford Mustang Mach-E, VW ID.4). See https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-temperature-affects-ev-rang… 3. EVs have two battery packs: a small 12V one, like a regular car battery, and the BIG one. If the 12V one dies, you can't start the car, even if the BIG one is good. (EV manufacturers should install better 12V batteries and provide better diagnostics for this kind of problem.) 4. EVs also have a "pre-conditioning" charge, where (massively simplified) battery warms itself to prevent damaging itself when it's too cold. This can drain the battery, but if the car is plugged in, it's not a problem, it'll just pull the charge from the plug (even if the battery doesn't need charging). 5. Sounds like a few chargers "froze" up. Just like gas pumps, but…

People are actually mostly getting good performance well beyond that. Estimates are now typically that most people can expect 15-20 years or more, unless they use the car in someplace very hot, always use a very fast charger, charge up to full every time they can, and things like that. It seems to be distance that matters more than time. Tesla has found that for their oldest models, most people still have around 90% capacity at 200k miles. The average American takes about 14 years to drive 200k miles. The data suggests that if you don't need a low mileage battery pack replacement, because say a particular model year turns out to be a dud you will probably get 150k or more miles. Here's some articles on EV battery life [1][2][3]. My expectation is that there will be a pretty good used market for EVs. For example, for my next car I'd like an EV and I want to get at least 100k miles with nothing but routine cheap maintenance and replacement of consumables such as tires and fluids. A used EV might be ideal for that, say one with 50k miles on it. That would be enough to be past early failures due to a bad model year, but still should have well over 100k left on it with good capacity. [1] https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last [2] https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-longevity [3] https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a44852031/how-long-do-electric-car-b…

I've searched the internet and I found some articles and people talking about prices around $11-16k, most of the times including labor. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/new-battery-cost-for-a-model-3… https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/183if34/what_is_the_actu… https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1blczt1/what_are_battery… https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/tesla-battery-replacement-costs https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/tesla-model-3-battery-replacement-…