Philipp Dubach
philippdubach.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2025
Philipp Dubach writes about AI, markets, and tech trends, including analyses of Hacker News sentiment and prediction markets.
What HN saysHN commenters link it for his argument that on-device AI will drive phone upgrades; the given comments offer little direct opinion on his writing.
15HN people shared it
5linked it in comments
78stories submitted
231story points
2 months agolast shared
2025people per year2026
Most-shared posts
- 1Is AI Eating the World?4 people · 15 points · first shared 2025 · 1 comments on HN
- 2The Absolute Insider Mess of Prediction Markets3 people · 2 points · first shared 2026 · 1 comments on HN
- 365% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform2 people · 16 points · first shared 2026 · 7 comments on HN
- 465% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment and They Outperform2 people · 7 points · first shared 2026 · 1 comments on HN
- 5Why Managers Sabotage Top Talent: Harvard Study on Incentive Design and Status2 people · 4 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 6When AI Labs Become Defense Contractors2 people · 4 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 7On-Device AI Models Might Be the Next Reason to Upgrade Your iPhone2 people · 3 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 8Building a No-Tracking Newsletter2 people · 2 points · first shared 2026 · 1 comments on HN
- 9Leopold Aschenbrenner: Situational Awareness Two Years On2 people · 2 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 10The Impossible Backhand2 people · 2 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 11The Last Architecture Designed by Hand2 people · 1 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 12The Most Expensive Assumption in AI2 people · 1 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 1393 of developers use ai coding tools. productivity hasnt moved.2 people · first shared 2026
- 14Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: The Framework1 people · 59 points · first shared 2025 · 33 comments on HN
- 15Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter1 people · 10 points · first shared 2025 · 6 comments on HN
What HN people wrote when they linked it
7777777phil · 2026-03-16
This is amazing, I just spent some time scrolling through these, most of the evolution is about inference cost not capability. GQA, MoE routing, sliding window attention, all trading theoretical capacity for practical efficiency.
Tbh might be the last generation of architectures designed entirely by humans. I dug into that (1) and might add another paragraph based on this if I find the time. The Big LLM Architecture Comparison (2) by Sebastian Raschka already inspired my ograph image for the blog -thanks again!
(1) https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand…
(2) https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com/p/the-big-llm-architecture-compa…
toomuchtodo · 2026-03-26
Local inference is the future imho.
https://philippdubach.com/posts/on-device-ai-models-will-be-the-new-re…
searls · 2026-01-07
This is madness. Some stories actually have good guys. I don't know Adam directly, but we have plenty of second degree connections. I've benefited immensely from his work, have never heard anyone say a single negative thing about him, and I genuinely believe he's done more to push the web forward with Tailwind than the larger players have done (certainly more than Facebook did with React and Google has done with Angular/AMP/etc).
Reflexively assuming that unanimous positive sentiment towards someone is itself an indication of a problem is exactly the reason people are writing posts as recently as (double checks) _yesterday_ titled "65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform" https://philippdubach.com/standalone/hn-sentiment/
ChrisArchitect · 2025-12-01
Stick to your full url: https://philippdubach.com/2025/11/23/is-ai-really-eating-the-world-1/2…
1vuio0pswjnm7 · 2026-08-01
26 Jun 2025 18:15:45 UTC
Situational Awareness: A One-Year Retrospective
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGGruXRxGQx6RQt8x/situational-awarenes…
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44389862
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30 Aug 2025 07:36:18 UTC
Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (2024)
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45072686
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12 Oct 2025 15:02:14 UTC
Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45558688
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29 Dec 2025 12:33:40 UTC
Situational Awarness The Decade Ahead (2024) [pdf]
https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationa…
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46420030
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03 Mar 2026 13:19:26 UTC
Situational Awareness: the decade ahead (2024)
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47231897
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05 Mar 2026 15:19:17 UTC
Situational Awareness (2024)
https://situational-awareness.ai/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47262572
[ok]
10 May 2026 02:47:06 UTC
Situational Awareness Kindle eBook ePub
https://blog.cahillanelabs.com/kindle/epub/llm/2026/05/10/situational-…
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48080509
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18 May 2026 19:05:28 UTC
Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F Filings Are Public
https://kiankyars.github.io/investing/2026/05/18/situational-awareness…
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48184085
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22 May 2026…