PlanB

medium.com/@100trillionusd · Personal blog · on HN since 2019

PlanB writes Medium posts modeling Bitcoin's value using scarcity and a stock-to-flow model.

What HN saysHN commenters cite the stock-to-flow articles in support of holding Bitcoin as a scarce asset and tie them to its price.
18HN people shared it
10linked it in comments
10stories submitted
22story points
5 years agolast shared
2019people per year2026

Most-shared posts

  1. 1
    Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity
    13 people · 15 points · first shared 2019 · 1 comments on HN
  2. 2
    Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model
    6 people · 7 points · first shared 2020 · discussion on HN
  3. 3

What HN people wrote when they linked it

jerrymiller · 2020-12-27
Here's an article that explains the fundamentals of Bitcoin and they tie to its price: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarci… > Is the purpose just to become more valuable because of its scarcity with no utility? Being a reliable store of value is great utility. Nothing else can come close to btc at that.
easymovet · 2019-09-07
Best performing asset of that past decade, and 2019: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarci…
argvargc · 2021-02-10
Miners, who supply new BTC to market, are constrained by mining expense to only sell at a price higher than what it cost them to mine. If they cannot meet this price, they mine less, and fewer BTC are produced. Various modelling based in these simple economic fundamentals has produced accurate predictions of BTC pricing over time: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-m…
janandonly · 2020-08-01
1. Read this: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-m… 2. Buy and hold Bitcoin for a while. (longer is better).
xiphias2 · 2019-10-29
As palladium has a stock to flow ratio of about 1 year, its price is too volatile compared to gold/silver to be a useful long term store of value. https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarci…
noch · 2021-02-10
> And those limits come up to the theoretical maximum of was it 7 or so and in practice around 4 > https://www.blockchain.com/charts/transactions-per-second The link you provided indicates transactions added to the mempool per second! The mempool is a cache of broadcast transactions from which miners pick transactions to be added to the next block. At the current block height, 2700 transactions were in the block. https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000007a3688746c1d04d1b9619eb… > Also PoW is hilariously inefficient. Because the amount of energy one needs to spend is basically related to the amount of value one could grab by cheating Your statement is entirely unclear. Could you restate it? For Steelman purposes, I'll ignore the non-sequitur about cheating. You claim that algorithm x is inefficient in absolute terms? Assuming you're an engineer, you know that engineering operates by comparisons and tradeoffs. PoW is how Bitcoin provides final settlement of transactions and unforgeable costliness compared to existing systems of money (e.g. fiat) and money transfer(e.g. visa, paypal, swift) which are all centralised and built for censorship, while bitcoin is decentralised and censorship resistant. And it provides final settlement of transactions every hour for thousands of transactions. "Finality" and "Unforgeability" are the terms you should attend to. These are both tied to hashrate which is tied to the profitability of mining the heaviest…
alwillis · 2021-01-04
It's inflationary, since more bitcoin are mined every ten minutes or so. That's not how it works… think about it. How can bitcoin be inflationary when the number of coins being produced decreases every 4 years? There's a fixed supply—over 88% of all the bitcoin that'll ever exist have already been mined. Yes, every 10 minutes or so, 6.25 new bitcoin come into existence but every 4 years, the block subsidy is cut in half and will continue to be cut in half until the final block is mined. The next halving is May 7, 2024. The amount of new coins mined will continue to decrease until 2140. You might want to read about bitcoin's stock to flow: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarci… Sure, the code says that it will stop when 21 million are mined, but there's no real guarantee that the code won't change before we reach that point. There's over $500 billion (and growing) in market capitalization that is based on the limit being 21 million bitcoin and not ever changing. This was already litigated by the bitcoin community. Or, the blockchain might fork (again) and now there are double the coins. Again, this isn't how it works. There could be dozens of forks; that doesn't matter. Only the longest chain with the most work on it matters. All of the hashing power would continue on the one true bitcoin chain while the forks languish. Bitcoin is open source; anyone can download the source code, make a few changes and launch a new…

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