Lucas F. Costa
lucasfcosta.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2016
Lucas F. Costa writes about engineering management, Monte Carlo forecasting, command-line tools, and software planning.
What HN saysHN links it for his posts on Monte Carlo forecasts and why deadlines fail, which commenters recommend for managers and team planning.
27HN people shared it
12linked it in comments
100stories submitted
3.2Kstory points
3 months agolast shared
2016people per year2026
Most-shared posts
- 1How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation4 people · 397 points · first shared 2021 · 153 comments on HN
- 2Why long-term plans don't work and how to fix them2 people · 295 points · first shared 2022 · 132 comments on HN
- 3How I'm still not using GUIs in 2019: A guide to the terminal2 people · 287 points · first shared 2019 · 239 comments on HN
- 4Useful engineering metrics and why velocity is not one of them2 people · 241 points · first shared 2022 · 146 comments on HN
- 5Your terminal is not a terminal: An Introduction to Streams2 people · 225 points · first shared 2019 · 52 comments on HN
- 6JavaScript Fatigue: Realities of Our Industry2 people · 215 points · first shared 2017 · 101 comments on HN
- 7Deadlines are pointless – what to do instead2 people · 188 points · first shared 2022 · 178 comments on HN
- 8Explaining explaining: a quick guide on explanatory writing2 people · 161 points · first shared 2021 · 35 comments on HN
- 9Talking to your customers: a disruptive Agile framework2 people · 116 points · first shared 2022 · 58 comments on HN
- 10All About Recursion and Tail Calls in JavaScript2 people · 71 points · first shared 2017 · 21 comments on HN
- 11You don't need Scrum. You just need to do Kanban right (2022)2 people · 14 points · first shared 2023 · 2 comments on HN
- 12Backpressure is all you need2 people · 12 points · first shared 2026 · 6 comments on HN
- 13UX Patterns for CLI Tools2 people · 10 points · first shared 2022 · discussion on HN
- 14Why backlogs are useless, why they never shrink, and what to do instead2 people · 6 points · first shared 2023 · 1 comments on HN
- 15Laws of Project Management2 people · 5 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
What HN people wrote when they linked it
chopete3 · 2026-07-10
This is a good example of AI native thinking. Teach AI everything and ask it if it has learnt throughly learnt. The results are surprisingly good.
I am following similar steps from this article
https://www.lucasfcosta.com/blog/backpressure-is-all-you-need
lucasfcosta · 2026-01-15
My blog and personal website: https://lucasfcosta.com
I usually write about Startups, Agile, and CLIs.
kqr · 2023-05-21
I'm sure you have seen it already, but there has been some sound criticism of the DORA metrics: https://isthisit.nz/posts/2022/state-of-the-dora-devops-metrics/
Though I disagree with Logan about the change failure rate (see https://two-wrongs.com/you-can-reliably-measure-change-failure-rate.ht… I still think he is spot on in terms of MTTR.
Strongly seconding Reinertsen for anyone interested in this, though. I think this article of yours is particularly insightful and of high quality: https://lucasfcosta.com/2022/08/31/engineering-metrics.html
e12e · 2023-03-30
A couple of related articles:
https://lucasfcosta.com/2021/09/20/monte-carlo-forecasts.html
https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2007/10/26/evidence-based-scheduling/
I've been trying to find out if there exists any out of the box solutions for getting cycle time for issues etc directly from the github api, and then do forecasting with confidence intervals - but so far I've drawn a blank.
senectus1 · 2022-09-20
funny given that only a month ago he was expounding the benefits of "Talk To Your Customers" [1] aka "Agile", which is essential artificially and programmatically governing your day via deadlines.
[1] https://lucasfcosta.com/2022/08/03/talk-to-your-customers.html
adave · 2022-09-20
Have your team read this and know its a managment and not a team problem.
https://lucasfcosta.com/2022/09/15/deadlines.html
math-dev · 2022-08-29
This piqued my interest so I had a read of the below which explained things very well, although I’m only about 70% fully comprehending it:
https://lucasfcosta.com/2018/05/20/Y-The-Most-Beautiful-Idea-in-Comput…
teraku · 2021-11-10
Reminds me of this post: https://lucasfcosta.com/2021/09/20/monte-carlo-forecasts.html
cavaccinisfa · 2020-02-21
Nice explanation.
Another article on terminals I stumbled upon in the past https://lucasfcosta.com/2019/04/07/streams-introduction.html
mesarvagya · 2019-04-12
I can see some Monads in his examples. One particular example being https://lucasfcosta.com/assets/fortune-and-cowsay-streams.png
sargstuff · 2026-06-20
Guess streams was a mixed analog / digital world thing[0]. Is 'curl' the higher order wave crest of LC_NETWORK (aka 'sane' http protocol reference to type bundled 0,1,2 file descriptors)
One can have curl as a bash loadable routine without the need to recompile bash. Headless or not, much more sane[4] than ctypes.sh[1] as curl binary epilog/prolog handle the non-http protocol items within the context of curl module/program. More relevant logic level related to topic beyond http protocol only curl : socat[2] and gnu netcat[3].
Ah, HN doesn't provide a way to conjure up * data tapes (comments not withstanding). Ebnf being battle tested for years & grepping the ANTLER[7] by the horns:
awk interpeting http stream via http protocol[5] via ebnf of http protocol likely to better handle the different protocal layers more gracefully than bash script. Would need to make sure awk is in bit mode and not character/byte mode to avoid line discipline issues / 'stty sane'[4]. Note:
Perl/python provide better layers of abstraction than shell coding for the different levels of protocols used in/with http protocol/ ebnf,Kleene* coding.[6] In shell, having a different command programm for every ebnf set/protocol level vs. awk, different ebnf for each Kleene* protocol level)
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[0] : Your trerminal is not a terminal: An Introduction to Streams :…
based2 · 2025-12-07
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26368011
https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/yes-you-should-estimate/ > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27006853
https://josephmate.github.io/PowersOf2/ Complexity Estimator
https://earthly.dev/blog/thought-leaders/ > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27467999
https://jacobian.org/2021/may/20/estimation/ > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27687265
https://tomrussell.co.uk/writing/2021/07/19/estimating-large-scale-sof… > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27906886
https://www.scalablepath.com/blog/software-project-estimation/
https://estinator.dk/ > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28104934
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28662856 How do you do estimates in 2021?
https://web.archive.org/web/20170603123809/http://www.tuicool.com:80/a… Always Multiply Your Estimates by π > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28667174
https://lucasfcosta.com/2021/09/20/monte-carlo-forecasts.html > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28769331
https://tinkeredthinking.com/index.php?id=833 > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28955154
https://blog.abhi.se/on-impact-effort-prioritization > https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28979210
https://www.shubhro.com/2022/01/30/hacks-engineering-estimates/
https://www.paepper.com/blog/posts/monte-carlo-for-better-time-estimat…
https://drmaciver.substack.com/p/task-estimation-101 >…