J
John Cochrane
grumpy-economist.com · Personal blog · on HN since 2024
John Cochrane, an economist at the Hoover Institution, writes about monetary policy, tariffs, markets, and public policy.
What HN saysHN links his post praising the Refine AI tool, and commenters debate whether it reads as an ad or a sincere review.
16HN people shared it
9linked it in comments
16stories submitted
124story points
4 months agolast shared
2024people per year2026
Most-shared posts
- 1Tariffs, Saving, and Investment3 people · 91 points · first shared 2025 · 75 comments on HN
- 2Refine3 people · 3 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 3Praise for Price-Gouging2 people · 8 points · first shared 2024 · 7 comments on HN
- 4Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates, Final Version1 people · 4 points · first shared 2024 · discussion on HN
- 5Central Bank Independence1 people · 2 points · first shared 2025 · discussion on HN
- 6AI, Society, and Democracy: Just Relax1 people · 2 points · first shared 2024 · discussion on HN
- 7A note on tariffs from the real world1 people · 2 points · first shared 2025 · discussion on HN
- 8Stagnation and Hope1 people · 2 points · first shared 2024 · discussion on HN
- 9Central bankers can be too independent1 people · 2 points · first shared 2024 · 4 comments on HN
- 10Tech Stock Singularity1 people · 2 points · first shared 2026 · discussion on HN
- 11Causation Does Not Imply Variation1 people · 2 points · first shared 2025 · discussion on HN
- 12Price Control Apologia1 people · 2 points · first shared 2025 · discussion on HN
- 13Change, Demographic and Intellectual1 people · 1 points · first shared 2024 · discussion on HN
- 14Bob Hall and Consumption1 people · 1 points · first shared 2024 · discussion on HN
- 15Aid1 people · first shared 2025
What HN people wrote when they linked it
roenxi · 2026-06-28
Regardless of whether people agree with the concept or not, this seems like excessive bureaucracy. This sort of thing should already be legal or illegal based on what is in an employment contract and it seems like just paperwork to have more laws saying that someone's reasonable working hours are indeed their agreed reasonable working hours. It shouldn't and probably doesn't need an act to metaphorically underline a short phrase in a contract. It is just creating drag on small businesses and that sort of thing costs money. I suppose this is an opportunity to link my favourite article reminding everyone that petty business regulation pretty much just makes countries poorer [0].
It reminds me of when politicians criminalise things that were already illegal to show that they are taking an interest in some crisis.
[0] https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/the-cost-of-regulation
mhb · 2026-02-08
Drug companies produce drugs to make money. There is a huge investment. They maximize revenue by price discrimination to recover the cost of the good drug and all the drugs that didn't work. The US is a rich country. People in other countries can't pay as much for the drug. To maximize revenue the drug company sells the drug at a lower price to those people.
More generally, price controls lead to less supply. Drug price controls will result in fewer new drugs. Minimum wage laws result in no workers doing work that is worth less than minimum wage. Anti- price gouging laws result in less bottled water and fewer generators after a hurricane. The principle is universal despite promises of delightful state run grocery stores.
Praise for price-gouging:
https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/praise-for-price-gouging
robertlagrant · 2025-04-15
> But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?
It's hard to quantify. E.g. the CHIPS act is a strategic thing in case TSMC is disrupted for some reason. How valuable is insurance? How much useful work (and skill) do you ship overseas in exchange for promissory notes[0]?
[0] https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/tariffs-saving-and-investment
maxutility · 2026-04-02
Here’s John H Cochrane (the grumpy economist, Substack) praising refine. This is the post that first clued me into the service: https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/refine
Here’s the Wikipedia for Cochrane: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_H._Cochrane
I haven’t tried refine myself, but from second hand reports it seems potentially well designed and useful.
pianom4n · 2026-02-26
Do you think the submitter intended this as an ad? His post history doesn't seem suspicious.
Or do you think article's author wrote this an an ad? He's a reputable academic who seems impressed with an AI tool he used and is honestly sharing his thoughts.
For reference he publish the 80 page inflation mini-book 2 weeks ago asking for feedback:
https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation
robocat · 2025-04-14
An even better article - also looking at exchange rates:
https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/tariffs-saving-and-investment
Bostonian · 2025-03-18
https://archive.is/cu5yZ
Discussed by economist John Cochrane at https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/aid.
richrichie · 2024-11-30
Perhaps you do not understand the difference between relative prices and nominal price level. So it is natural to extrapolate that way.
Try these as background reading. 1. https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation-vs-prices 2. https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation-and-relative-prices
PS Almost all manufacturing is done indoors now. Rain does not affect supply of most manufacturing of iphones, trousers, ovens, etc.