East Asia Forum

> The best case scenario of North Korea is that the world is faced with a humanitarian crises on a shocking scale True. Reintegration would compare very unfavorably to that of East Germany: http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/04/09/comparing-north-korea-to-east-… Every aspect is much worse. Larger population, lower relative GDP, lower workforce skills...

The question is rather, what (possibly horrible, dystopian) methods will we use to prevent a demographic crisis as fertility rates are plummeting most places in the world, as most projections now suggest population decline will start within a century. Turns out the method that have worked the best against "those who insist on breeding like rats" is to treat them humanely, reduce childhood mortality, increase education and provide a more stable economic environment - do that and fertility rates plummet - with or without additional pressure like China's infamous one-child policy. As it stands, China is set to face decline within a decade or two despite having dropped their previous draconian measures to reduce fertility rates - their fertility rates are now slowly increasing, but they're still far below replacement. India is set to see decline ~3-4 decades later - they're now about at replacement, with fertility still dropping, but there's a lag of a few of decades from the decrease in fertility to population decline. Sub-saharan Africa will likely be last, but even those countries are seeing declining birth rates (e.g. even Niger, which has one of, if not the, highest fertility rates in the world is at around 6.6 births per woman now, but the rate peaked at 7.9 in 1983 and has been declining consistently since, currently at a rate of about 1.3% a year; UN projections suggest they'll reach ~4 by 2050, and around ~2.3, slightly above replacement, around year 2100) As a…

This article is wildly off-base and totally misrepresents South Korea, both factually and in tone. There are many ways that South Korea is a great country but this article misses the mark. Source: I've been married to a South Korean for 10 years. > South Korea was able to make these achievements without a citywide nor a nationwide lockdown. A large part of the country is literally in Level 4 lockdowns now (no gatherings >5, beaches closed, pubs closed, daycares closed, etc). [1] South Korea has mandatory military service for all men. They're required be in the military for nearly two years. [2] Korean society is high patriarchal. Domestic violence is persistent. Families are not complete until they have a son. Multiple daughters are considered a burden. Gender roles are consistently enforced. Sex crimes are a major issue [3]. Nearly every woman has been assaulted in a serious and unusual way (men outside windows, breaking into their apartment, flashing, etc). By law cellphone manufacturers have to program their phones to produce a shutter sound when a photo is taken. This was an attempt to curb upskirt and other voyeur photos. Female-only train cars are common due to rampant groping on public transit. People absolutely do not trust their government. In 2016 the president was impeached in one of the most bizarre political scandals of the last decade. [4] There was a dizzying array of conspiracy theories involving the ferry boat that killed 294 people (mostly highschool…

> lifting historically unprecedented numbers of people out of abject poverty. Basically true, but not much more than that for most Chinese. The urban modern success story presented to the world is a surprisingly small segment of a notably larger population and even for many in that smaller more fortunate segment the gravy days are long ago and no sign of returning yet. https://eastasiaforum.org/2011/08/19/in-the-city-but-not-of-the-city-t…

Tech crackdowns rid China of entrepreneurial capitalism https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/09/12/tech-crackdowns-rid-china-of-entr… Why China crushed its tech giants https://www.wired.com/story/china-tech-giants-policy/ Why Big Tech May Never Recover in China https://time.com/6973119/china-big-tech-crackdown-backfiring/ Beijing can’t afford another crackdown on its tech companies https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/china-cant-afford-another-crackdown-on…

Japan is not without problems related to a shrinking population i.e. https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/05/21/japans-immigration-politics-starv… but it's a problem easily solved by just letting in more immigrants.

The rice shortages were not because of poor farming practices, this is basic knowledge now: https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/10/18/japans-rice-crisis-shows-the-pric… Yes the weather was bad in 2023 for farming rice, but it could be bad anywhere in the world. Australia does plenty of industrial scal farming and there are years were certain crops are decimated. Anyway the government dipped into the stockpiles and all is good now.

I would say it is more sinister than just a cost-benefit analysis and plain racism in hiring. Cheap talent exists in far more places than India but somehow it almost always is India. Not only that but I have seen the strangest LinkedIn profiles where people graduate from no-name Indian universities and get a big-corp job here in the West like it is nothing. Even Japan has become pro-Indian on immigration for tech: https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/11/06/takaichis-japan-looks-to-india/ Wtf...

Youths overthrew the government in Bangladesh last year based on similar outrage circulating on social networks. And what happened? The interim government banned the political activities of the only party that's won an election in recent memory: https://www.doughtystreet.co.uk/news/bangladesh-ban-awami-league-viola… Meanwhile, the Islamist parties have been un-banned and are resurgent: https://thediplomat.com/2025/08/resurgence-of-jamaat-e-islami-shifts-b… https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/04/07/political-islam-could-fill-bangla… Youths are fucking dumb. As George Washington said in Hamilton: "Ah, winning was easy, young man. Governing's harder."

> North America consumer plastics do not end up in the ocean in large numbers. Yes, they end up in South East Asia. https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/06/26/southeast-asias-plastic-waste-pro…

> America should take QUAD to the next level ASAP India doesn't want that, because India uses Russia as a mediator with China [0][1][2], and India wants to maintain the current status quo. [0] - https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/10/23/how-russia-emerged-as-key-mediato… [1] - https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-india-factor-in-china-russia-ti… [2] - https://www.nbr.org/publication/india-and-the-quad-when-a-weak-link-is…

In regards to Boris Johnson and Gavin Newsom, IMO that is a straw man argument. You talking hypocrisy and now not about illegal fishing. This is about protecting ocean resources and there is de facto evidence China is not. If the United States and the EU buying illegally caught fish. please post a link so it can be investigated and prevented. As for China, they have overfished their waters and there is de facto evidence that China is depleting populations of over 90 other countries: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/08/03/chinas-efforts-to-reel-in-ove…

It seems the Democrats are much better at packaging “America First” than Trump when it comes to European “allies”. This article is quoted extensively: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/12/11/us-chips-war-hits-allies-but-…

> ...but the LDP has been in power since WWII almost continuously. My impression is that gerrymandering initially associated with the Reverse Course[0] has much to do with those electoral results. (But maybe not? A cursory search turns up an article[1] complaining that voters in a rural district had —only— twice the voting power of urban voters, which certainly sounds inferior to the extent of US practise) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_Course [1] https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/29/fixing-japans-gerrymander/

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/business/global/23rare.html but also read https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-30/we-all-need-to-c… and https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/08/18/did-china-really-ban-rare-ear… as it seems this isn't really that clear cut. The US's current smearing of China probably has a big part in it.

But the model of economic growth China pursued in the last couple of decades is export driven. This assessment is from 2011: Much of China’s remarkable growth between 1978 and 2000 can be explained by the reform. But the more recent and faster growth in the last decade has been mainly driven by exports. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/02/27/chinas-export-led-growth-mode…

For Europe and Japan, population is in decline. US population would be in decline if it were not for immigration. China is expected to max out around 2026. (The one-child policy worked.) India, though, has real problems.[1] Two big problems we expected to have were overpopulation and running out of energy. Neither happened. [1] http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/04/05/indias-population-in-2050-extr…

> Better than your "ill-informed delusional ramblings". Then please provide sources. Japanese birth rates plunge to record low: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-07/japanese-birth-rate-plunges-r… http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/07/21/drastic-change-in-immigration-…

This is a good article on that in a nutshell: http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/09/13/hostile-neighbors-china-vs-japan/ Lots of things have been happening between the two countries for a while now, not since 2011. As others have said, there is a territorial dispute that to the best of my knowledge really flared up when Japan actively nationalized the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. China's moves in the South China Sea have not made things better. Aside from that, China blocked rare earth minerals to Japan in 2010. [1] There have been numerous boycotts by China (to the point of outright vandalism of Japanese cars, business property) over political issues [2] There is always the whole WW2 apology issue (over comfort women, wartime crimes, etc.) In 2015, China made a jab at Japan during their 70th anniversary of WW2 victory. [3] On the bright side, China did help Japan out during the big earthquake/tsunami of 2011. [4] [1] http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/08/18/did-china-really-ban-rare-eart… [2] http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-boycott-hurts-japan-2012-9 [3] http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-boycott-hurts-japan-2012-9 [4] http://www.npr.org/2011/03/15/134567659/china-acts-fast-in-aiding-japa…