Bruce F. Webster

(As I always point out...) This is known as the "Dead Sea Effect" and it was traditionally associated with companies like IBM but now we're seeing it across the board with tech layoffs. The best people know they have options and they have a good network so once a company starts showing signs of slowing down they bail out. http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

Long run it also bad for company because best people usually leave first this kind situations and those people who can get another job stay so dead sea effect sets in https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-e…

> Are there any other countries besides China where we doubt nearly any "fact" they produce? What causes this? Its incredibly odd to read an article where the government makes a claim and then follow it up with a claim from someone else that is entirely different. IIRC, Soviet and Eastern Bloc statistics were regarded with similar skepticism. I would imagine the same would be true of any dictatorship where information is subject to strict political control. Without reduced capability of independent verification, distortions can multiply out of control (http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-… In China it's apparently so bad that not even the government trusts its own GDP numbers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index).

Bruce Webster calls this the Thermocline of Truth. Which I think is a great metaphor. http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-…

> But what actually happened was that people who were good at their job, and could find work elsewhere, left. So they would have had all of the top talent leave the company and the remaining employees would be the people who did just enough to get by. This reminds me quite a bit of a blog post from The Wetware Crisis on what he deemed The Dead Sea Effect ( http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef… ) While not a forced evaporation which you describe, its the 'the best people can get jobs elsewhere' and 'the less capable people entrench themselves as experts on critical systems to where they can't afford to be let go'.

They're not contradictory at all. People who present themselves as PHP developers tend to have a set of common differences from people who present themselves as Ruby or Python developers. That doesn't mean that the competent among both groups are incapable of quickly switching languages. It might mean that the percentage of competent developers is different between the two groups. It's basically the Dead Sea Effect[1], but with languages. Generally better developers will want to use better languages. That shouldn't be surprising. Hopefully we don't have to rehash the argument about the fact that some languages are better than others, since we're on HN and pg has covered that point in great depth. [1] http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

Two of the best software engineers I've ever hired (and worked with) did not have college degrees (one only had a GED for high school). But they were both highly talented and came highly recommended from people I trusted. No, getting a CS degree doesn't guarantee that you're talented; far from it. However, it does show that you have enough aptitude to make it through a CS program, and it lessens the chance that you'll spend my time re-inventing -- or, worse yet, ignoring -- foundational concepts in computer science and software engineering. Here are some more of my thoughts on the subject of hiring IT engineers: http://brucefwebster.com/2008/01/10/the-wetware-crisis-tepes/ http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/14/the-longest-yard-reorganizing-it-f… (and thanks to dmv for the link to my 'Dead Sea' post, which is what led me here). ..bruce..

In far too many organizations, there is something called "the thermocline of truth". > A thermocline is a distinct temperature barrier between a surface layer of warmer water and the colder, deeper water underneath. It can exist in both lakes and oceans. A thermocline can prevent dissolved oxygen from getting to the lower layer and vital nutrients from getting to the upper layer. > In many large or even medium-sized IT projects, there exists a thermocline of truth, a line drawn across the organizational chart that represents a barrier to accurate information regarding the project’s progress. Those below this level tend to know how well the project is actually going; those above it tend to have a more optimistic (if unrealistic) view. In the more Machiavellian companies that I have worked for, this would be a layer on the org chart where truth stops flowing upwards. It may also affect downwards flow of information as well. The brass at the top don't know what is going on because they can't depend on the layers of management between the CxO tier and where work actually gets done. > is it really the job of the CEO to dig that deep on technical issues No. You - as CEO - should be able to trust the people in those layers. Maybe BillG didn't trust them. Or he didn't know how to. He was technically excellent enough to be able to do this sort of sanity check for himself. Perhaps, as CEO, you only need to do this sort of "quality control" check occasionally. Any organization…

Another word for "Clamming Up" is "The Thermocline of Truth." https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline… "Clamming Up" because of power dynamics is inherent to hierarchy. This is why relationships with co-founders and employees need to be nurtured carefully. It's the same set of dynamics that happen inside a band. If you always want candid advice, honest feedback, and critical though unpleasant information to flow freely and undistorted, then you must remember that actions speak louder than words. If someone tried to tell you something you really need to hear, though you may not have wanted to hear it, what did you do? How did you react? It's not enough to just say that you're for honesty and openness. It's not enough to say you value someone's opinion. You have to actually do that! Did you counter-attack? Did you order your underling to never speak of "it" again? Did you use the differential in power to just shut-up and shut-off? If you were asked to give a detailed account of what the other person had to say, would they be satisfied that you gave a full and fair account of what they were trying to convey? Would you even be able to recall such details, or would your account be sketchy and vague? Paying your employees well and having a great environment is actually a double-edged sword, here. What happens, if one day, your early employee comes to you with something they know you don't want to hear, and you react badly? What if you…

Still there. Contributing to OSS (golang) + studying theory I missed because I didn't do compsci at uni. Once I hit the 40/50 patch count and have good algo/os knowledge I reckon I should be better placed to be attractive job-wise. Several failed 'views have seriously hit my confidence, but I am working on fixing obvious areas of deficiency. A lot of the problem is that the stuff you build can't necessarily happen at the place you're at - if all your place do is db frontends and your coworkers produce endless spaghetti, anything you produce is going to be subsumed by that. Another issue which is rarely spoken about is the atmosphere of the development environment - if people are on edge/insecure/[deadsea-ers][1] things can get nasty quick, and there is nothing better at pulling down your confidence. I have come to the conclusion that you have to build your own positive output because you love it, and let the career-enhancing aspects act as a side-effect. I adore this stuff, that's why I'm doing it. It is often frustrating though - I am 29, 30 in September and it is difficult not to feel trapped. The negative aspects of the job make it harder to do the positive stuff necessary to get out - got to work hard to keep your head above the water. [1]:http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

https://brucefwebster.com/2008/01/10/the-wetware-crisis-tepes/ Talent, Experience, Professionalism, Education, and Skill.

A few years back I left “big tech” for a much lower paying tech-ish job that had a meaningful mission. I was fine having a lower paying job, but what I didn’t expect was that the lower pay meant that the skill level for my colleagues was also much much lower. Years of the “Dead Sea effect” [0] had turned it into an environment where the blind were leading the blind and they weren’t even aware of how bad things were. So high pay also means “better coworkers” [0] http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

I mean do you really need a “study” for this? If you are good at your job and you are forced to return to office, you have other choices and you get another job. If you don’t have other choices because you aren’t good at your job, you return to the office. It’s the ultimate “Dead Sea Effect”. https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-e… > I think low preformers are going to get RIFed Has the Trump administration ever made competence a requirement for employment? He wants RFK to be the head of health and human services

> It's painful to work with people who don't care if you care a lot, and eventually I left because of it. I have a few people on my team that do not care and seem to be incapable of caring. I'm trying to get them removed but it takes months. In the meantime, I'm deeply worried that the solid performers will find other opportunities and leave because they can find new jobs in a few weeks. The Dead Sea effect in action [0] (and HN responses [1]). [0]: http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef… [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23166786

It's easy for old, incumbent companies to become ossified, where their internal culture and bureaucracy and processes are hilariously inefficient. At any given time, there will be some people pushing back on that, but there will always be more people there who are okay with it -- because the ones who couldn't handle the ossification left, while the people who were okay with it stayed. Survivorship bias, in other words; sometimes this is called the Dead Sea effect: https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-e… (this article talks about it in terms of IT competence, but you can easily apply it to other aspects of a business' culture) That's why it's so important for it to be easy for new entrants to start up in an economic sector. You need them to pressure the old guard, or failing that, to replace them.

Sounds like the thermocline of truth: https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline…

Dead Sea effect http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

The phenomena been written about as "Who moved my cheese?" A lot of people value comfort and reliability over chasing higher salaries and more reward. But the "cheese" gets depleted over time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Moved_My_Cheese%3F There's also an aspect of the "Dead Sea Effect". The people who stay and settle for the below market salary also tend to be the less talented and/or motivated. I've seen this and done this. In low performance teams and organizations it's easy to "rest and vest" and keep a good work life balance. http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

I think it's seriously underestimating how sensitive top-performers are to this type of nonsense. It's always the people with other options that are the first to leave. Those without other options, on the other hand, they'll fight tooth and nail to stick around and put up with almost any amount of bullshit or mismanagement. It's almost like they read this, and thought "huh, that's an interesting idea we could try": http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef… The blog has a bunch of other good article on related topics.

Not very well known, but not new. http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

> There was an article about this phenomenon recently--the author called it the "thermocline of truth". The author was using terminology introduced quite a while ago by Bruce F. Webster: https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline…

> If you are experienced and notice that things at your company are broken, you either try to advocate for fixing things or just leave out of desparation. See also the Dead Sea effect: http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

setting aside how top managers weaponize anything into "blame others and excuse themselves", the blame is more clear in the original blog post linked in the article https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline…

References and extends this post, may be better to start with it: https://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline…

They are referring to the Dead Sea effect: http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef…

To provide some context on this, Bruce Webster worked mainly as a consultant that triaged projects that have missed their targets. Therefore, his definition of the "Dead Sea Effect" probably comes from his almost exclusive experience with failed projects and ineffective teams. Source: He taught my software engineering class and this blog post was required reading. I think his "thermocline of truth"[1] is one of his more effective metaphors. [1]: http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-…

I wish this were always true. There is also the scenario where the “senior developer” just outlasted everyone else. They started when the company was small, didn’t really know what they were doing then but because they have built relationships with the right people and no where all of the bodies were buried - because they buried many of them - have an outsized influence on the organization, whether they are good or not. Then you have two things happen. All of the talented people leave and you have the Dead Sea effect and the “senior developer” is nothing more than an expert beginner. http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef… https://daedtech.com/how-developers-stop-learning-rise-of-the-expert-b…

One thing to do is to push the knowledge and acceptance of the situation up the management chain, especially to the non-believing Product Owner, lest the Thermocline of Truth[1] be revealed in two months and three weeks. 1. http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-themocline-…

I think this would be territory covered by the dead sea effect: http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/11/the-wetware-crisis-the-dead-sea-ef… IME this is in full swing at just about every company complaining about job hoppers.