Baldings World

Yes, and they aren’t the only ones. We really have no idea how bad the situation is in China. Their total debt (public, personal, and shadow) to GDP is suggested to be as high as 1660% of GDP. This a staggering amount of money. What we are seeing is probably the greatest financial crime in history. There is absolutely no way the markets can contain this once this runs its course. For now no one can do anything. Every time you try to bet against China, more analysts are simply paid off or the Bank of China props up the stock against your shorts. http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/10/23/everything-we-think-we-know-ab…

Anyone interested in China's real economic condition should have a look at the ongoing analysis by Michael Pettis: http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/444 And Christopher Balding: http://www.baldingsworld.com/ Like other China watchers, they tease economic reality out of ancillary economic data that is difficult to spin (eg. capital outflows, HK-China cross-border trade, energy consumption). The picture is not good. Reforms are needed, to increase low and middle-class domestic consumption; and perhaps a trillion? in non-performing loans must be written off. The rules for foreign trade and investment in China need to be rewritten to allow for unrestricted foreign competition and investment in the broadest of terms. In sum, system inefficiency in China markets must be rooted out quickly to avoid a much worse crisis.

Izabella Kaminska writes some pretty good China posts for the Financial Times, her Twitter is worth a follow; https://twitter.com/izakaminska But the best round-up of China lately I've seen is from Christopher Balding, a professor in Peking University's business school: http://www.baldingsworld.com/2015/08/14/end-of-week-thoughts-on-a-big-… Basically, a lot of wait and see, but China's headline reserves aren't nearly as impressive as they sound and things could get interesting if they lose much more value.

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/thatschina > After seven years building up a magazine empire in China, I had it stolen by the state. I lived in the grey zone that is China's media business and, despite my commitment to the country, paid a high price https://www.baldingsworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/An-Innocent-A… > A few weeks later over beers with a lawyer colleague, I recounted my tale of hysterical woe. He informed me that in reality, much of Chinese dispute resolution from neighborhood quarrels all the way through to significant civil and criminal litigation follow a similar pattern with open conflict avoided. According to him, recompense for damages all the way through to incidents involving death can allow people to avoid jail time. What I first thought a mistranslation, Negotiation Rooms existed to serve that purpose where every dispute from noise complaints to many business disputes to many acts that would qualify as felonies resolved themselves with official help in a Negotiation Room. In China as a foreigner, you become so used to being treated differently, both good and bad, that it surprises you to find out your experience is just like everyone else.

From the original article: "A government directive sent to journalists in China on Friday named six economic topics to be “managed,” according to a copy of the order that was reviewed by The New York Times." From everything I've read, I would be extremely surprised if journalists are the only ones who receive implicit or explicit "suggestions" on what is acceptable to say, and what is not. http://www.baldingsworld.com/2018/07/17/balding-out/ (It's an excellent article overall.) I am leaving China. After nine years working for the HSBC Business School of Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School as a professor teaching international trade, negotiations, and ethics, I am leaving China. In early November 2017, the HSBC Business School informed me they would not renew my contract. In March 2018 they informed me they wished to sever all ties by April 1, 2018. One of my biggest fears living in China has always been that I would be detained. Though I happily pointed out the absurdity of the rapidly encroaching authoritarianism, a fact which continues to elude so many experts not living in China, I tried to make sure I knew where the line was and did not cross it. There is a profound sense of relief to be leaving safely knowing others, Chinese or foreigners, who have had significantly greater difficulties than myself. There are many cases which resulted in significantly more problems for them. I know I am blessed to make it out. I'd also be surprised if China is the only…

Or it's because the CCP was cheerleading stocks during the boom, and there was a VAST increase in the number of trading accounts being opened in the run up to the peak. Pensioners put their life savings into the stock market because the government was cheering for it (and it's not always a bad bet to go with what the government is backing). It dropped, what, 30%? The rules changed so that housing can be used as collateral for margin lending, so a lot of them could have lost a lot. P/E was about 100. In some cases, earnings might be fabricated. Get a loan (requires good connections), fake revenue, IPO, use the high stock valuation as collateral for the loan (I think this is allowed in China). Get more loans. Fake more revenue. Embezzle a bit. Usually they mean well, and aren't just outright cons, but there was apparently one big one the Hong Kong Exchange (which is usually more rigorous). Housing can be 10X income. In some places 20X income. It's partly due to the government forcing down interest rates (tightly regulated banks - so savers may have negative real interest). Banks put a loan as doubtful if the debtor has stopped trading for 6 months, so there could be a lot of debt that's not so solid. And no-one knows what GDP is, but it might not be growing as fast as the government says. An Asian country, with a median age over 35, crony capitalism, high savings rates, possible asset bubbles, a possible stock bubble, a government that's likely to go for bailouts rather…

The report that NBC is referring to was compiled based on public data. It can all be checked. Really it's just sad how cattle-like some people are. Edit: Here it is: https://www.baldingsworld.com/2020/10/22/report-on-biden-activities-wi… Every claim is footnoted with a direct link to a cited source that is publicly available.

> I don't think the emails show clear signs > of any improper behavior with respect to China. Yeah, but there was this recent report (https://www.baldingsworld.com/2020/10/22/report-on-biden-activities-wi… which does seem to show clear links to the Bidens having received CCP money.

It is owned by a union in a communist country https://www.baldingsworld.com/2019/04/26/making-sense-of-huawei/ How independent from CCP is that institution in practical terms?

Thanks for taking the time to reply so thoughtfully. I feel a bit silly in my original comment now. This article, also trending on HN today, is illuminating on what life in China is like: http://www.baldingsworld.com/2018/07/17/balding-out/

China's too late. China's Debt to ratio is a staggering 833% http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/10/23/everything-we-think-we-know-ab… Why China Lost About $3.8 Trillion To Capital Flight In The Last Decade (FDI was only 1.3T over the same decade, leading to a massive loss) https://www.forbes.com/sites/insideasia/2017/02/22/china-capital-fligh… So no money.....and recently it prevented South Korean companies from withdrawing assets from China. Now companies around the world knows. Who's gonna invest in China now? http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/national/19352-exodus-chin…