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Andrew McAfee
andrewmcafee.org · Personal blog · on HN since 2011
Andrew McAfee is an MIT researcher who writes about technology, automation, jobs, and the economy.
What HN saysHN commenters cite it in discussions of automation and the decoupling of productivity from jobs. One disputes how conclusive its graphs are.
15HN people shared it
2linked it in comments
13stories submitted
37story points
7 years agolast shared
2011people per year2026
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What HN people wrote when they linked it
bcoates · 2013-03-04
I don't think the decoupling argument has been made as conclusively as everyone seems to be assuming. Look at the source in the OP for this [1]: These are some seriously misleading graphs.
First, plotting both labor productivity and GDP doesn't make much sense, as the former is almost exactly determined by the latter. They're just measuring GDP.
Secondly, they zoom in on the post-WWII era, then proceed to ignore the biggest long-term economic issues of the time period: The hangover from WWII, with the corresponding stable demand for US infrastructure and labor as the world rebuilt itself, and the housing/derivitaves bubble, as a combination of fraud and self-delusion caused the computed GDP numbers to shoot off into the hypothetical-wealth stratosphere even as the economy was faltering.
Once you account for the elephants in the room, there's nothing surprising left in the graph that would lead you to believe that the robotic obsolescence of labor is around the corner.
[1]: http://andrewmcafee.org/2012/12/the-great-decoupling-of-the-us-economy…
z2 · 2014-07-08
Andrew McAfee has a number of interesting articles and talks on this. E.g. http://andrewmcafee.org/2014/06/mcafee-autor-edsall-jobs-skills-downwa…
The way I see it, automated jobs will still add real value to the economy. Perhaps everyone can receive a share of that surplus through some form of universal income. At that point, assuming most of society's economic value creation is automated, monetary compensation could be completely decoupled from labor, yet everyone can be better off since everyone would be resource rich.