Aatish Bhatia

I love the "disorder" setting: https://aatishb.com/patterncollider/?pattern=0.29&disorder=0.58&am…

What counts as science is results, and Sweden is flattening the curve just as well as the UK and Canada, so the system is working, whatever it is. I mean, take a look: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Canada&location=Denmark&… I'm not sure why people are having such a hard time accepting that what Sweden is doing is in fact working, in the face of a pretty clear graph. Just because it appears counter-intuitive or possibly not in line with their preexisting ideas of what should be done? There's still 5 US states without any form of lockdown (the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas), too, so you could say they're "following the Swedish model." Wyoming, Utah and Oklahoma are only under regional partial lockdowns, too. Of course they only account for about 5% of the population but it remains notable.

> We looked at each country’s trajectory in “phase space” – where we looked at the evolution of the daily case growth rate as a function of the number of cases (rather than as a function of time). Each country has followed a very similar trajectory in this space, where the disease begins on a theoretical SIR curve but then veers off course and decelerates after government intervention. This has also been done here: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ Accompanying minutephysics video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc Previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22715920 This page provides results by country rather than by US state.

I just looked at the pictures. What they recommended. https://aatishb.com/images/2014/08/pizza-fold-hold.png vs What I do. https://assets.bonappetit.com/photos/5a9dd665eb730726d6c7ec14/master/w… If the article said to fold it in half, then we are in agreement. But the picture they provided didn't show that.

> HIV is so fundamentally different Coronaviruses are very different. We've rarely had any this deadly before. All vaccines are different; they're not one blanket thing. Smallpox vaccines are attenuated virus (a virus that has mutated to be benign in humans; in the case of Smallpox, the first vaccine by Jenner was injecting people with Horsepox). Most Influenza vaccines are heat treated/inactivated virus. In all cases, vaccines try to produce antibodies and force our immune systems to develop a memory for a virus we haven't actually been exposed to. As shown in the links above, this might not work at all for coronavirus. To some extent, the actual interactions of vaccines, are somewhat opaque. This In A Nutshell video shows a very small part of the adaptive immune system, greatly simplified: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSypUV6QUNw > The virus isn't just going to "burn out" anytime soon Exponential growth doesn't go on forever. It has to hit an inflection point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg The more deadly a virus is, the faster it does burn out. It runs out of hosts to infect or everyone develops an immunity. SARS/MERS may have had lower outbreaks because of how much more dangerous they were. If you graph fatalities on a logarithmic scale, you'll see we're already well past the inflection point in the US: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths The cases are going up, but the fatalities are not, indicating there may be a lot of…

Wow, thanks for sharing. The video shows this tool, which has a 3D harmony/dissonance explorer, which can be used as a makeshift musical insturment. https://aatishb.com/dissonance/

This doesn't really mesh with the situation on the ground. I think it does: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&trendline=false&…

It would be better if the plots in that thread showing Arizona/Florida/Texas vs All Other States used the same y-axis scale. They don't and it is hard to tell if a "trend" in shape is of the same order or not. If you view the US states in log-log plot [0] you can see that Arizona (as well as all the other hot spot states) has a much lower doubling rate (for deaths) than New York did for an equivalent number of deaths. Something strange is going on, and it can't all be explained away with Simpson's paradox. [0] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&region=US

Ok, I took a look and it doesn't look good ... Compare Sweden to the list of its Nordic neighbors: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Denmark&location=Finland… Or, for a more direct comparison: https://i.insider.com/5e9d6a5015ea4b315c0b4d0a?width=1100&format=j… (from https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavi… - Sweden's population is 2x that of Norway so keep that in mind when comparing, but the difference is really apparent.

This is good news, considering they've apparently been also able to reduce the number of new confirmed cases [1]. [1] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

Just in case you haven't seen it, I'm a big fan of this [0] chart, which plots new weekly cases against cumulative total, both axes on a log scale. It has a whole video explanation [1] if you're interested in the logic behind it. [0]: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ is a pretty cool related resource

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data This shows an "unexpected" inflection point starting March 28 which slowed the USA death growth from 2.7 day doubling to 3.4 days doubling. Even at that slower rate 900 million Americans would be dead by the end of May, so obviously there will be a major slowdown in deaths over the next 8 weeks. https://neherlab.org/covid19/ indicates maybe sometime between July and October things will normalize (ICU's will no longer be over capacity). https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ The phase space plot from Johns Hopkins dataset still shows no recent improvement of trajectory, in contrast to the NYT dataset.

> I would appreciate it if we avoided this kind of hearsay on HN during these difficult times. This graph makes it quite clear that Japan is hiding their numbers (also Iran and South Korea): https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?country=Australia&country=Canada&… The Graph also shows that China either has a cure, or is fuzzing their numbers as well.

Looks like Sweden doesn't stand out much in its case growth compared to neighbors: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?country=Finland&country=Germany&a…

Interactive charts from the video: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

I don't really know what you're talking about. NZ looks to me to have a lower death rate than Australia. See [0]. I haven't done a deep dive of the literature but from what I understand wearing face masks is pretty well established to correlate with lower infection rates. A Google search gives [1] which seems pretty reputable to me. It sounds like you're picking a fight about your personal cause celebre? The original article is talking about trying to figure out how to build evidence. The underlying assumption is that once you have evidence, you use it to inform decisions. You're pushing a false narrative by not only ignoring evidence but also misinterpreting or lying about the evidence that's available. [0] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Australia&am… [1] https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/COVID-WWKSF/…

>South Korea is also contemplating murder charges against a church. They also did massive contact tracing when they were still under 100 cases. South Korea took this massively seriously. >As did Taiwan after Wuhan. Taiwan also rationed emergency supplies. Here's what Taiwan did: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/taiwan-covid-19-lessons-1.5... But they didn't mass-close businesses. That's what causes the economic damage. >the same economics as the other European countries (which are all benefiting from their social safety net You sure about that? https://www.dw.com/en/as-coronavirus-lockdown-eases-italians-fear-blea… , https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/23/unrest-hunger-and-hardship-in-fran… . > The problem is that if a country didn't react fast enough, it is then required that you react harder and longer. Required by what? Sweden hasn't "reacted" harder and the spread of the virus is already slowing there: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Brazil&location=Canada&a…

A more complete set of COVID-19 informational resources†: COVID-19 trends by region, country, state/province, U.S. metropolitan area, or U.S. county: https://outbreak.info COVID-19 projections: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Financial Times Covid-19 tracker: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/ CovidTrends; New cases (weekly average) vs. total cases, by country: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ Worldometers Coronavirus live statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ US realtime state Rt estimates and tracker: https://rt.live The Economist excess mortality tracker: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-… Covid19 projections: https://covid19-projections.com/ Imperial College London Covid tracking 7 estimation model (US): https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19usa/ Our World in Data Coronavirus tracker: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus map (US): https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map ArcGIS visualizer: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c1953… Rysiek's National comparison grapher: https://rys.io/covid/ ________________________________ Notes: † Some duplicates w/ parent.